5 Reasons why the Red Sox should trade Josh Beckett NOW

I thought the Red Sox should have dealt Josh Beckett after his All Star season in 2009. He had one year left on his contract, was affordable and was probably at peak value. Instead the Red Sox signed him to an extension.

Well here I am 2 years later and I am more than saying the Red Sox would be smart to trade him. I am saying the MUST trade him.

There are 5 factors of the current baseball climate that make a Josh Beckett trade imperative and forward thinking for the Red Sox.


REASON ONE: THE STAR TREK EFFECT

I wrote at the beginning of the season that, like the Star Trek films, Beckett is good every other year.

2007, 2009 and 2011 he was an All Star.
2006, 2008 and 2010 he was underwhelming.

So 2012 looks like he is due for a sub par season. And if his 5.48 ERA in September was any indication, he might have a head start on a bad year. If he is going to lose with a high ERA, I'd rather it be with another team.


REASON TWO: C.J.WILSON AND THE HORRIBLE CROP OF AVAILABLE PITCHERS

C. J. Wilson is the most sought after free agent pitcher on the market right now. He was born the same year as Josh Beckett (1980) and he has 2 good seasons as a starting pitcher under his belt. Beckett has 3 All Star seasons with the Red Sox to go along with some good years in Florida.

Wilson has a spotty playoff record while Beckett has a World Series MVP and an ALCS MVP on his mantle.

I've been saying that C. J. Wilson is a contract disaster waiting to happen. But the need for starting pitching and the terrible crop of current pitchers will mean that SOMEONE will pay him over $100 million over the next six years.

Or they can pay Josh Beckett $45 million over the next three years. A team that loses (wins?) the C. J. Wilson derby after he signs elsewhere can get a cheaper shorter term contract with a pitcher the same age with a better career and a much sharper post season record.

Sounds like a good move to me.

REASON THREE: THE RED SOX LACK OF DEPTH

I don't think the Red Sox are winning the 2012 pennant. They lack depth in the rotation, in the bullpen, on the bench and even in the lineup.

Besides Lester, who can be trusted in the rotation? Buchholz is too much of a health risk to be counted on. The bullpen is a no man's land. The corner outfield spots, catcher and shortstop are a mystery and there is little firepower off the bench. The Red Sox need to address some of those problems and a trade for a younger player (or hopefully younger players) would help solve some problems. If the Sox can swing a deal and get a corner outfielder of the future or a good young reliever that can be a factor for the next bunch of years, then it is a deal worth making.


REASON FOUR: BOBBY V AND BECKETT WILL BE A MATCH MADE IN HELL

We all know this is true. Beckett isn't exactly Mr. Cute and Cuddly and he was an ornery dude with a lovable lug like Terry Francona running the team. Now he will be in the clubhouse with the Know-It-All who trashed Beckett down the stretch on ESPN.

How can this end well?
How will they coexist?
The answer is they won't. And on the heels of the great collapse of 2011 and Valentine putting his thumb print on the club, it is probably best not to do an experiment and put them in the same clubhouse.

Oh it would be entertaining. But I prefer peace and winning.

REASON FIVE: BECKETT DID HIS JOB. IT'S TIME TO MOVE ON.

If there is one thing the modern history of the Red Sox has shown us, it is Boston is quick to let stars rot on someone else's watch. Nomar, Pedro, Mo, Damon, Mueller, Millar, Lowe and Manny all had their "grumbling and limping" seasons on someone else's dime. No doubt we will add Papelbon to that list.

It means the Red Sox are not exactly a sentimental team. But the Sox should make the deal with Beckett while our memories of him are still positive.

He owes Red Sox fans nothing. He was brought in to be the brash bad ass ace that was missing from Fenway after Pedro Martinez left. He rewarded us Sox fans with a memorable 2007 regular season and a totally dominating post season. He went 4-0 with a complete game shutout, the ALCS MVP and probably would have won the World Series MVP if he had a second start.

He did what he was supposed to do.
He secured that second championship, the won that showed 2004 was not a fluke.
Let's remember THAT Josh Beckett instead of the player who will inevitably breakdown soon.

As a Red Sox fan I can't possibly thank Josh Beckett enough. But it is time to move on.


I have a feeling all of these reasons will fall on deaf ears.
But dealing him makes sense.

Trust me.

Bobby V, The Lobster and Arnie Beyeler

OK, Bobby V is coming. The Red Sox are Valentine's team now. And the idea that it will be a calm player friendly environment is as likely as the Red Sox retiring Grady Little's number.

I think there is only one way Bobby Valentine's authority can work in Boston: Give him TOTAL authority. Make it clear that it is indeed his way or the highway. Take away as many obstacles as possible of people to challenge him.

Normally I think it is positive to challenge authority. But bringing in Valentine means a change in the culture, and that can't be done in a half assed manner.

It HAS to be Bobby V's ship. No "That's not the way we did it before."
Otherwise they just should have kept Francona or promoted one of his lieutenants.

Which brings a challenge regarding The Lobster.
Readers of Sully Baseball know that I believe Jason Varitek's nickname should be The Lobster.

The Red Sox captain is a free agent right now and the reasons to bring him back are hard to find.

He brings a tiny bit of power to the plate and he hasn't as awful as he was in 2009 when his .209 average and .703 OPS led to the Victor Martinez trade. But he has become subpar offensively.

The traditional arguments to retain The Lobster are his ability to call a great game and his leadership skills.

Well his game calling and handling the pitching staff didn't help the Red Sox in their historic nosedive. The pitchers all had ERAs with area codes and game plans seemed to change from pitch to pitch.

And his leadership skills didn't get Beckett, Lester or Lackey's act together when the team needed them more than ever. If it was indeed Francona's team and Varitek's clubhouse, then that needs to totally change with the arrival of Bobby V.

In a way, Varitek would be a relic of the Francona years and one that could possibly act as a tension point to the new manager.

Varitek could represent the classic "It's the way we do things around here" barrier.
And of course Bobby V is the "If that way was so great, then why was I hired?" counterpoint.

If the Lobster returns, and it isn't for his bat or pitch calling, then what else could he offer except a place for the veterans to turn to when Bobby V gets under their skin (which he will)?

So yeah, I am advocating that the Red Sox 14 inning win in the Bronx on September 25th be Varitek's last game as a player in a Boston uniform.

Now the Red Sox are not exactly a sentimental organization. Just witness how quickly Nomar, Pedro, Lowe, Foulke, Damon, Bellhorn, Embree, Manny and Papelbon were shown the door when they were considered to be done. Ask Theo and Tito how cute and cuddly the Sox are.

So Varitek just might not come back and turn up being a backup catcher for the Yankees for all we know.

I think they should keep him in the organization, but away from Bobby V.
How can they do that?

Drive 45 minutes south of Fenway and make Varitek the manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox.

Seriously, his playing days are done and putting The Lobster on Bobby V's coaching staff could be a recipe for disaster.

Manage the top farm club. Help the pipeline of young players up to the big club, be part of the organization and let Bobby V put his own stamp on the team.

And if (when?) Bobby V implodes and the situation becomes intolerable, he can be let go and Varitek can take over the club with managerial experience and familiarity with the young players he managed and the veterans who he played with.

All that is good, but where does that leave Arnie Beyeler, the current PawSox manager?

Make him the one provision for Bobby V. "You can pick your entire coaching staff except you need to bring Arnie Beyeler in."

Beyeler has been in pro baseball as a player, scout, minor league coach and minor league manager since 1986 but has never made it to the majors. He's not about to make waves.

Stick him as the first base coach and Bobby V can have his own bench coach, third base coach, hitting coach, pitching coach and bullpen coach. And that way the young players who played in Pawtucket last year will have a familiar face.

So let's review what this does...

Bobby V would have real control of the team (and why hire him if you don't give him control?) The remnants of 2011 leadership would be gone.

The Lobster Varitek would remain in the organization and build up his credentials to come in and bring back some 2004 and 2007 magic if Valentine doesn't fit. But we also would avoid seeing him clash with Valentine and continue to erode at the plate as he approaches 40.

And Beyeler gets to contribute at the major league level after more than a quarter century of dues paid.

Makes perfect sense to me.
Which is why it probably won't happen.

There's only two ways the Bobby Valentine era can turn out

Well, Bobby V is coming to Boston. I wrote earlier that I was fine with either Valentine or Sandy Alomar Jr. at the helm of the Red Sox.

So I can't complain.
It's a short term solution, but maybe the whole "He was gone but now he's back to prove he can still do it" mentality could work its magic the way that Jack McKeon had in 2003 with the Marlins or Jim Leyland gave the Tigers in 2006.

Or it can be a disaster like Davey Johnson with the Dodgers or Dallas Green with the Mets or Jim Leyland with the Rockies.

The Fried Chicken Crew didn't respond to super classy, totally lovable, two time champion Terry Francona? Well try Bobby V... a man who has been wrong exactly zero times in his life.

Just ask him.

A veteran team with a know it all outsider coming in as manager could be either a brilliant move or it could be a biggest bomb than the last decade of Nicolas Cage films combined.

So the Red Sox are either going back to the World Series or about to crash and burn in a way that will make us nostalgic for September 2o11.

Either way, it won't be boring.

Valentine or Alomar?

It is looking more and more like Bobby Valentine will be the next manager of the Boston Red Sox. I can't say I am all for it or against it.

Obviously if Valentine comes in, I will root for him to do well.
I always thought that Bobby V was a fun and entertaining manager who did a good solid job in Queens. Remember the post Davey Johnson years were a wretched dumping ground of bad free agent signings, bloated expectations and losing seasons.

In 1993, the Mets were the worst team money can buy.
They had 6 straight losing seasons before Bobby V arrived.

They went from 91 losses to 88 wins in Bobby's first full season, 1997. By 1999 they were in the NLCS. By 2000 they were in the World Series.

He had one losing season and was out the door.

Which is telling. Bobby V rubbed people the wrong way. He was a know it all and didn't seem shy in telling people of his great knowledge.

And lest we forget he disguised himself to sneak back into the dugout after he had been ejected. I still think that is one of the funniest moments in baseball history.

Bobby did all of that in the cauldron of New York just as the 24 hour sports news cycle and the internet became influential.

I always felt like Bobby V should have taken over a franchise that had some talent but was a small enough media market that he could become a revered figure. Basically a crazier Tony LaRussa.

And he seemed to love the respect he got in Japan during his years of managing there. Maybe a team like Kansas City with their young talent could be Bobby V's domain. Actually I thought the Marlins were an ideal fit for him, but that is Ozzie land now.

Then again, as I wrote last year, Bobby V can take his time. He has a great job on ESPN and is terrific on the air where being a Know It All is a positive thing. (And if he gets something wrong, no team lost because of his decisions.)

It would take a great job to lure him out.
The Red Sox would certainly be a high profile job. And with Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Gonzalez and Lester still around they have a nice foundation.

I think the Red Sox are 2 years (and probably 8 pitchers) away from being a true pennant contender again.

Then again, how many people had the Tigers winning the 2006 pennant when Jim Leyland arrived?

It is an intriguing potential signing. And would be worth every penny if for no other reason than the post game press conferences will be awesome.

But I find Sandy Alomar Jr. to be an interesting potential manager as well.

He caught in the big leagues for 18+ seasons, making the All Star Team 6 times and he would have been the World Series MVP in 1997 if Jose Mesa could have held onto the lead.

As a catcher for nearly 2 decades in the big leagues, he called games and was brought in to mentor young catchers with the White Sox, Rockies, Rangers, Dodgers and Mets.

He has experience as a instructor, a coach and a bench coach.

In other words for a quarter of a century he has been thinking baseball strategy on the major league level. And he has the on field success to back up his instruction.

And he also beat Mariano Rivera in a playoff series. Just saying.

SOMEONE will be the recipient of that positive baseball knowledge. Why not the Red Sox? Sandy Alomar Jr. is a man who was raised in a baseball family with a Hall of Fame brother to boot!

Who can hear "Sandy Alomar Jr." and think "What the hell does HE know?"

Bobby Valentine is the best choice to win NOW. I personally don't think the Red Sox are going to win now... but I didn't exactly pick the Cardinals last year or the Giants the year before that!

I think Sandy Alomar Jr. is the better long term choice.

I guess I will be fine with either one.

Then again, I would have been fine with Kevin Kennedy coming back too.

Is Bobby Valentine just interviewing poorly?

Seriously, it wasn't that long ago that it looked like Bobby Valentine would have the pick of the litter of terrific manager jobs.

Everyone knew the Braves job was going to go to Fredi Gonzalez... but the Cubs job looked available, as did the Marlins and Dodgers.

The Mets were out there as were the Mariners and Blue Jays. And a place like Milwaukee could be a fit. And the challenge of Pittsburgh could have been attractive.

Well the pickings are getting slim now. The Dodgers handed the keys over to Mattingly where he seems destined to fail.

The Cubs, Diamondbacks and Marlins surprisingly kept their interim managers. Toronto and Milwaukee each swiped coaches from other teams.

The Mariners dusted off Eric Wedge, the Pirates look like they are closing in on Clint Hurdle and the options have all whittled down to one team:

The Mets.

He's not going back to the Mets. And new GM Sandy Alderson doesn't care for strong willed managers.

He'd rather hire a cardboard cutout of Bobby Valentine than the real McCoy.

I wonder what gives. Say what you want about Bobby V... he's a solid baseball mind and could be exactly what a dead from the neck up franchise could use.

Plus his personality and unpredictability make him damn good for the game.

Is he interviewing badly?

Is he giving that all knowing smirk to the owners making his potential employers feel silly?

Either way, I think baseball is going to be a little more dull in 2011 because the Cubs went with Mike Quade and the Mariners took Eric Wedge out of mothballs instead of giving Bobby V a shot.

Hey Bobby V and Buck... take your time picking a team

Bobby Valentine was rumored to be the new manager of the Marlins and supposedly Buck Showalter is hovering around Baltimore ready to wear the black and orange.

And yet Edwin Rodriguez is still in charge of the Marlins and Juan Samuel is helming the Orioles. And I think that is a good thing.

Not only do life long baseball men like Rodriguez and Samuel get to potentially finish up the season, but Bobby V and Buck, two of the most intriguing managerial candidates out there, could feast on one of the most robust and potentially rewarded managerial free agency off seasons in history.

Assuming that Joe Torre will join Bobby Cox, Cito Gaston and Lou Piniella in retirement (which he should) and Jerry Manuel won't be asked back to manage the Mets (which he probably won't) then there are jobs with lots of potential glory and obvious hazards out there for two managers who have worked in the bright spotlight, had success but looking for that ring.

Let's look at the potential landing spots.

ATLANTA BRAVES

THE UPSIDE:

- The team looks like it is playoff bound, so you will be inheriting a winner.

- With McCann, Heyward, Hanson, Jurjenns and McLouth, you have a solid nucleus for a winner for years to come.

- The recent playoff success helps make it an attractive free agent destination.

THE DOWNSIDE:

- The shadow of Bobby Cox will lurk over this team for a generation.

- 14 straight trips to the playoffs is a tough act to follow.

- If they win how much credit can you claim? It will be like Joe Altobelli winning in 1983 with a team Earl Weaver put together.

- Ted Turner no longer runs the team, so the days of spending big to win now are over.

- The fans don't care. They can't even sell out playoff games!

THE VERDICT:

Best leave Bobby Cox to pick his own successor. Between Terry Pendleton and Fredi Gonzalez there are a bunch of Cox's former lieutenants who can take over the job without making the organization feel like they are going in a totally new direction.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

THE UPSIDE:

- The Orioles are a tradition rich organization with some of the best and most passionate fans in the game who are DROOLING for a winner.

- They won't be trying to move unless they get a "Camden Yards like stadium."

- Matt Weiters, Adam Jones and Brian Matusz are a nice trio to build a team around.

- The passion is high but the expectations aren't. This will be their 5th straight 90+ loss season. They haven't had a winner since 1997. Put a winner on the field and Camden Yard will be full of grateful fans.

THE DOWNSIDE:

- There's a reason they have gone more than a decade without a .500 team... the only teams in American Pro Sports with worse management are the Raiders and the Clippers.

- That Orioles winning tradition is harder to sell when the last Orioles championship took place before their young stars were born.

- The Orioles have been good and developing hyped prospects, not quality major leaguers.

- Oh that A.L. East... good luck spending with the Sox and the Yankees.

THE VERDICT:

A good gig if you want to look like a hero (a la Jim Leyland with the Tigers.) Better hope the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees get injured. Better yet, better hope Peter Angelos sells the team!

CHICAGO CUBS

THE UPSIDE:

- Hey you want to be a God to a fan base and be instantly considered a Hall of Famer? Then manage the Cubs to a World Series title.

- You don't need to worry about fan support nor revenues.

- Maybe the new ownership will open up the purse and do "Operation Red Sox - 2004" and get all that Billy Goat crap put to rest.

- With players like Castro and Soto, they have some young stars to build with.

THE DOWNSIDE:

- If winning a title for the Cubs is so easy, then why hasn't anyone done it since the days of Tinker to Evers to Chance?

- They've had over 50 managers since 1908 including Joe McCarthy, Rogers Hornsby, Leo Durocher, Lou Boudreau, Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella. Good luck!

- The Cubs lead the league in unmovable awful contracts. As long as Jim Hendry is buying the groceries, the Cubs won't be cooking up anything that tasty.

THE VERDICT:

It is the easiest route to immortality and having a major city treat you like a God. But the fan base is getting restless and the new ownership is a wild card. Also for whatever reason, Ryne Sandberg has been anointed the new Cubs manager savior... good luck with that.

FLORIDA MARLINS

THE UPSIDE:

- The team has a tendency of winning a World Series every once in a while. Might as well win one on your watch.

- Living year round in Miami isn't that bad.

- No pressure. The fans will be so busy watching Wade and LeBron that they won't notice you until you are in the World Series.

- You could manage the team when the excitement of an actual BASEBALL stadium opening in Miami occurs in a few years. Maybe some fans will show up as well.

- If you can harness the potential of Hanley Ramirez, you could have a Hall of Famer on your hand.

THE DOWNSIDE:

- Ebenezer Scrooge thinks that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria is cheap.

- Joe Girardi and Fredi Gonzalez each led overachieving low budget teams to surprising records... and both were rewarded with being fired.

- Fans didn't seem to care when they won in 1997 and 2003. Why would they care now?

THE VERDICT:

Maybe the new stadium and new revenues will mean longer contracts for their players. Miami may be a cool place to live, but so far it is no baseball town. But if this is the last managerial stop, then why not? If you retire, you'll already be in Florida!

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

THE UPSIDE:

- A Chance to manage one of the marquee, big market, high profile organizations.

- They have a rich farm system that produces solid big leaguers at a steady rate.

- They also have a pitchers ballpark and play in a pitchers division, so it is about as attractive a destination for any quality free agent arm to land.

- They have a wonderfully rich tradition that treats its Champions with dignity.

THE DOWNSIDE:

- Mel Gibson's divorce was civil compared to the fiasco that is the McCourts.

- A championship window might be closing and shockingly it is not out of the question that the Dodgers might be dismantling the team soon.

- You know Joe Torre doesn't WANT to leave... but he also knows that managing a losing team isn't how he wants to end his legacy. Why should you take Joe's scraps.

THE VERDICT:

If the divorce settles and the Dodgers can act like one of the few big market, big budget teams that they are, then this is a job sent from heaven. But despite all the resources, talent and solid managers that have come and gone through L.A. recently, they still have startling turnover (nobody from the 2004 playoff roster was on the 2006 playoff roster and they had three different managers since the 2004 NL West title.) A good gig if you win. Lousy if the divorce drags on.

NEW YORK METS

THE UPSIDE:

-You win in New York and you are a God. And currently only one position is available in New York.

- The expectations aren't as high in Queens, but winning there might be more special because it has been so infrequent.

- You never have to worry about management cutting corners on free agents. They are as aggressive as any team not named the Yankees.

- National exposure and a passionate fan base would make any title even bigger.

- Both of you (Bobby and Buck) have unfinished business in New York.

THE DOWNSIDE:

- Both Buck and Bobby V managed in New York before. Are you two considered damaged goods?

- Omar Minaya is to the Mets what Jim Hendry is to the Cubs. Aggressive but wreckless with contracts and can put a loser on the field with a $100+ million payroll.

- Every move is broken down to the point where you have to answer to Joey from Sheepshead Bay calling in to WFAN when your bullpen move didn't work.

- No matter how big the Mets get, they are the poor stepchild of the Yankees.

THE VERDICT:

Untold glory and unspeakable headaches can come from being the skipper in New York. Joe Torre gave the Yankees 6 pennants and 4 World Series titles and that wasn't enough for some people. Make sure you can work well with Omar... just ask Willie Randolph how fun it was.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

THE UPSIDE:

- Toronto is a great city. Big, cosmopolitan and clean... with universal health care.

- It's also a passionate sports town and when the Blue Jays have something to offer, they show up in record numbers.

- With Marcum, Romero, Litsch and Drabek, they have a nice foundation of young pitching... which as we know is the cornerstone of any championship run.

- Expectations are low. Exceed them and be a hero.

THE DOWNSIDE:

- In case you didn't know, Toronto is in Canada. You try luring free agents across the border!

- Also in case you didn't know, Toronto is in the American League East. Unless you see the Red Sox, Yankees or Rays crumbling any time soon, you are more likely to see the EXPOS in the playoffs before the Blue Jays.

- Unless you really see Jose Bautista and John Buck being the cornerstones to a title team, this team is going to REALLY stink for a while.

- Toronto fans are passionate, yet don't you feel they'd give Joe Carter's home run back in a second for a Stanley Cup.

- People in America will put out a missing persons report for you.

THE VERDICT:

Let some young manager working their way up the ranks take over Toronto. This is no place for a skipper with some success under their wing... except for Cito Gaston.



If I were advising the two... I'd tell Bobby Valentine to take over the Dodgers. Eventually the divorce will die down and L.A. would eat up his larger than life style.

As for Showalter, I wouldn't touch the Orioles with a cattle prod. I'd go to the Mets, especially if Minaya is shown the door. Buck put together a winner in New York once before and he can do it again... and this time follow it all the way through.

Choose carefully, you two. You already have playoff experience and some aura about your dugout smarts in the bank. A World Series title on your resume... you might be talked about as a Cooperstown candidate.

And remember... all the smart baseball people read this blog and take my advice to heart.