My brilliant analysis of the Royals and Giants trade

The Royals sent Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez and minor league left hander Ryan Verdugo.

Now I have many Giants fan readers (and not just my dad.) And I got a lot of e mails and text messages asking "What do you think of the deal?" or "Why haven't you talked about the trade?"

I guess with a few days to think about it, I have to supply my amazing and insightful breakdown of the deal.

I have no clue.

Seriously. How can ANYONE have a clue if this was a good trade?

Jonathan Sanchez? Sure he has talent. He's left handed. He's under 30. He won 13 games a few years ago and threw a no hitter a few years before that.

He also has had a grand total of one, count em, ONE noteworthy season as a big league pitcher. And even THAT season he could be agonizingly inconsistent. And only once did he post an ERA below 4.

And he did that in one of the best pitchers ballparks in the game. I felt the Giants should have traded him after the 2010 World Series when his value was at its peak and Bumgarner could take his spot in the rotation.

Instead Sanchez had an injury plagued 2011 and they HAD to deal him now or else they'd have nothing. 30 year old injury plagued pitchers don't fetch what 29 year old injury plagued pitchers get on the market.

Will he pitch well for the Royals? Or was he a flash in the pan?

I don't know. Neither do you.

They got Melky Cabrera who is better than anyone else in the Giants outfield. He had career highs in homers, RBI, stolen bases, batting average, OPS, OPS+ games played and plate appearances. He was OK with the Yankees for 4 years, lousy with the Braves for one before flourishing with the Royals.

Did he find himself?

Did he have a fluke good year?

Is he well suited for Kansas City?

Who can honestly say?

But he IS going from the American League and their many hitters parks to the worst hitters park in the game. Will that derail him? Or will he launch drives into the gap and stretch them to triples?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Thrown in for good measure is Ryan Verdugo. He had two very good seasons in the Giants farm system as a relief pitcher. So naturally everyone thought he'd make a great starting pitcher. (Classic Joba Chamberlain syndrome.)

He was eh as a starter for the Double A Flying Squirrels of Richmond. So naturally the Royals will probably keep him in the rotation. He's 24, left handed and has a pulse, so he will pitch for the next 20 years.

Basically this is a team swapping question marks. The Royals needed an arm. The Giants needed a bat.

Who got the best of this?

Who got the worst?

No clue.

And it is hard hitting analysis like THIS that you can only find on Sully Baseball!

The Mets have thrown in the towel

Wow. I had a feeling the Mets fire sale would start soon. But I didn't think it would happen while players were still lingering around Chase Field in Phoenix for post All Star Game festivities.

Beltran and Reyes better get back to Queens fast before they are shipped out!

Francisco Rodriguez is now a Milwaukee Brewer. And while I don't trust him in post season play any further than I can throw him, but he does pile up saves in the regular season and now those late inning leads will go to someone else.

And the domino effect is going to happen in that bullpen and it won't be pretty.
Beltran is next. If they can get a package for Reyes, why not?

When I talked about my lousy predictions for the season, one of my readers pointed out that I didn't mention my prediction that the Mets would lose 90 games.

I'm standing by the prediction. I think this team is about to be dismantled. And they will be essentially fielding an expansion team for August and September... and the mood will get from bad to worse.

Yes I know they are a game over .500 now after their first 91 games.
And to reach 90 losses they'll have to double their loss total in just 71 games.

I've seen teams unravel fast.
They could go 26-45 the rest of the way. 6 of their next 7 games are against the Phillies and Cardinals.

The Mets have series involving the Reds, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Braves and Brewers in August. They also have a bunch of games with the Marlins and Nationals who are playing better.

In other words, losses could pile up fast, especially if morale is bad.

Now keep in mind one thing:
I think the Mets are doing the right thing.
They are dumping bodies off the sinking ship and will have some growing pains with the new crew.

They SHOULD deal Beltran. And if anyone can take Bay do that too.

Read this carefully Mets fans:
I think the Mets will be a major contender in a couple of seasons. I trust Sandy Alderson and sometimes it is a good thing to hit rock bottom.

And Met fans, go to a game at CitiField this year. Nobody will ever question your loyalty to your team after this season.

Zack Greinke helps complete the Gary Sheffield trade

I started thinking about Gary Sheffield when Zack Greinke arrived in Milwaukee yesterday. Let me explain.

There was a telling moment in Zack Greinke's introduction to the local press. He said "The main reason I wanted to get out" and he stopped himself with a smile and made a correction "I mean preferred to get out of Kansas City..." and he continued.

The first statement was the correct one. He wanted out of Kansas City, the once proud baseball city that was home to one of the true marquee franchises of my youth. Now it is the Pittsburgh of the American League. The team that is there to develop players for other teams while perpetually piling up prospects for a pennant run that never comes.

All the while people complain that their lack of success comes from their small market and revenue, all the while teams with smaller revenues consistently make the post season.

So you can't blame Greinke for wanting to get out of that purgatory and the Royals dealt him when his value was still high and teams that wanted Cliff Lee were craving a consolation prize.

But after reading Tim Brown's article on Yahoo Sports, I lost a little bit of respect for Greinke. He won the Cy Young in 2009 with his slider being his best pitch. And when the Royals stunk as they have every year he pitched in KC, he didn't throw the slider as much making sure his arm was good and strong to whatever contender he landed with.

Sorry but the Royals drafted him, made him a millionaire many times over and didn't give up on him when his anxiety disorder made him leave spring training in 2006.

The Royals stood by him as he had to leave baseball for psychological reasons. A team could have said "This clearly isn't going to work. His head is all messed up."

They didn't. They let him work out his issues and let him back in to be in the position to go from "a head case" to "elite ace."

The Royals deserved a little more than "I'll save my best stuff for the winner." And the other contenders in baseball deserved to face Greinke at his best as the Royals could have played spoiler down the stretch.

He checked out. And I guess it was karma that he was dealt to Milwaukee.

Remember all of those years ago when Gary Sheffield was playing for the Brewers? He was a future superstar playing with future Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor. But he hated playing in Milwaukee and wanted out and supposedly made errors on purpose to hasten a trade out of town.

He was shipped off to San Diego (and then Florida, and then Los Angeles, then Atlanta, then the Yankees, then Detroit, then the Mets...) and put together a career that at least deserves to be part of the Cooperstown discussion. (And somehow he managed to circumvent the whole steroid stigma despite being as involved in the BALCO accusations as Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi.)

So one star dogged it to get OUT of Milwaukee.
And today one dogged it to get traded TO Milwaukee.

In a way I guess Greinke was a player to be named MUCH later in the Sheffield trade.

It shows how far the Brewers have come that they are considered to be a destination for someone wanting to win NOW!

Now if a star will play at half speed to get traded TO the Royals then Kansas City fans could call it even.

The Brewers Statement: We are NOT Kansas City (nor Pittsburgh for that matter)

When the Royals traded Zack Greinke to Milwaukee the other day, there was a beautiful symbolism to the move that wasn't lost on me.

Greinke wasn't dealt to New York. Forget the spin of "He couldn't handle New York." Neither the Mets nor the Yankees have the prospects to have pulled off the trade.

He wasn't dealt to the Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, Angels or Dodgers.

The Royals, a small market club that ships off all of their stars, sent him to Milwaukee, another small market club that used to ship off all their stars.

Instead of sending Prince Fielder packing and looking to rebuild, the Brewers are going for it and adding a Cy Young contender.

And with that trade, the Brewers are doing something I've been urging the Pirates to do for a while and will pretty soon may encourage the Royals to do the same thing.

Go all in and give your fans a reason to be excited.

There is a reason I am bringing up the Pirates in this post about the Royals and Brewers.

From when the Wild Card era began in 1994 until the end of the 2006 season, the Pirates, Royals and Brewers combined for 34 losing seasons out of 36.

Only the 2003 Royals got their nose over .500 ith an 83-79 season.

And those three teams became the symbol of everything unfair with baseball. Their revenue was so much lower than the big spenders... how could they POSSIBLY compete?

This of course ignored the fact that low revenue teams like the Marlins could win the World Series twice in that stretch. And ignoring the fact that contraction worthy teams like the Twins and the A's could be playoff regulars. And the Expos, despite having no owner nor ANY fanbase managed to contend into September in 2002 and had a winning record in 2003.

Those three teams kept building for a future that would never arrive.

And the mantra of Brewers owner and commissioner Bud Selig (no conflict of interest there) was to change the economics of the game to help teams like his own.

Well, a wonderful thing happened to the Brewers: The Seligs sold the team.

Sometimes that's what you need. A change at the top could lead to changes in the whole culture of the team. Remember how the Red Sox couldn't win the World Series all of those years? From the mid 1930s to 2002 they were owned by the Yawkeys.

2 years after they sold the team, they were the World Champs.

After years of putting a losing club on the field under the Seligs, the Brewers finished at .500 in 2005, their first season under Mark Attanasio's ownership.

By 2007 they had a winning record and contended into September for the first time since 1992.

And in 2008, they did what would have been unthinkable just a few years before and would be sacrilegious in Pittsburgh and Kansas City: They dealt away one of their major league ready prospects for a veteran who was on the verge of free agency.

And even if Matt LaPorta turns into a good player for Cleveland... and even though CC Sabathia bolted town the second the season was over... it was the right move for the Brewers.

Sabathia pitched his heart out in his cameo for the Brewers. And when he pitched a complete game on the last day of the season, propelling the Brewers into the playoffs for the first time since 1982, he did something that no prospect could EVER do:

He gave Brewers fans too young to remember Harvey's Wallbangers or the great start of 1987 an actual awesome baseball memory of their team.

And guess what happens when you give fans a wonderful feeling about rooting for their team?

You build a FAN BASE!
You get excitement for your team instead of apathy!

Young kids in Wisconsin experienced a thrilling season and even a post season win at home in the Division Series. There isn't the hum drum "What's the point of watching them. They NEVER win" attitude.

And those fans who experienced the fun of 2008 have added hope in 2011. A new manager, a powerful lineup (with or without Fielder) and a rotation that now features Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke.

Meanwhile the Royals got more prospects and continue to promise their fans that happy days are just around the corner.

The Brewers aren't playing that game, at least not now.
They are going for it and saying to their fans "We want you to have more good memories of your team."

All it took was a change in attitude (and getting the Seligs out!)

Reviewing who was traded for Cliff Lee

As the baseball world focuses on Arkansas for the first time EVER and wonder where Cliff Lee will go, one thing is certain:

One team will be grumbling when the season begins that all of their courtship yielded nothing.

Well, if he goes to New York, the Rangers will get a pair of draft picks.
And if he goes back to Texas, the Yankees will still have the money and some prospects to try and make another deal.

But I started thinking about the Indians, the Phillies and the Mariners... all the other teams to have employed Cliff Lee since winning the Cy Young Award in 2008.

None of them are currently involved in the mating dance for Lee... but each team has players who were brought in exchange for him.

Let's review who they are.

THE CLEVELAND INDIANS' COMPENSATION FOR CLIFF LEE

The Indians sent Cliff Lee to the Phillies along with outfielder Ben Francisco on July 29, 2009. In return they got:

CARLOS CARRASCO

The 23 year old right handed pitcher had a rough cameo with the 2009 Indians. But he had a solid 2010 in AAA Columbus and looked more like a big leaguer when he was recalled in September. His best game came on September 11th when he pitched 7 1/3 shutout innings against the Twins, matching Nick Blackburn inning for inning. He looks ready for the show.



JASON DONALD

Every single baseball fan and many non baseball fans saw the most famous moment in Jason Donald's career. According to the official record, he got an infield hit off of Armando Gallaraga to break up his perfect game this June. Of course he was out. The replay showed it. But why rehash that? Let's look at the positive! He showed he can hustle!

He also showed that he could play every day as he started 44 games at shortstop before manager Manny Acta made him the regular second baseman. In order to keep that gig, the 25 year old infielder will have to hold off switch hitting Cord Phelps who tore up AAA. But his flexibility could make the 25 year old a valuable reserve infielder.


JASON KNAPP

The 19 year old righthander pitched in the South Atlantic Legaue following shoulder surgery. He struck out 29 in only 16 innings and looks like a solid prospect.



LOU MARSON

A 24 year old catcher, he will compete with another young prospect in Carlos Santana. He played 87 games with Cleveland last year and looked over matched at the plate, but he's young and evidently handles pitching staffs well.

Was considered a top prospect before the trade, he may become a serviceable reserve catcher.

THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES' COMPENSATION FOR CLIFF LEE

The Phillies sent Cliff Lee to the Mariners on December 16, 2009. In return they got:


PHILLIPPE AUMONT

Listed as one of the top 100 prospects by Baseball America in 2008, 2009 and 2010, it is unlikely that he'll make it four years in a row after a subpar first season in the Phillies organization. The Quebec native and former first round pick started the season in AA Reading, thinking he was on the fast track to Philadelphia. Instead he was demoted to the Florida State League after a brutal start to the season.

He was unimpressive this year, but he was only 21 and could rebound. And could also develop into a good reliever. Time will tell.


TYSON GILLIES

Gillies was the 21 year old hitting stud who tore up the California League was supposed to be on the fast track to joining Domonic Brown as the new young center pieces of the Phillies outfield.

Instead he had a terrible season in AA, had hamstring issues and was arrested for cocaine possession.

It is safe to say that the Phillies weren't happy. But hey! How can 2011 be WORSE for him?


J. C. RAMIREZ

Like Aumont, Ramirez is a 21 year old right handed starter. And like Aumont he was unimpressive in both Clearwater and Reading in his first year in the Phillies pipeline. He has decent stuff and maybe with a good pitching coach he could be a serviceable big league pitcher. But as of this writing, he has yet to raise his head above AA.

THE SEATTLE MARINERS' COMPENSATION FOR CLIFF LEE

The Mariners sent Cliff Lee to the Rangers along with reliever Mark Lowe on July 9, 2010. In return they got:

BLAKE BEAVAN

A huge pitcher (6'7", 250 pounds) he 21 year old was terrific in AA and made 7 starts for AAA Tacoma. He was the Texas League pitcher of the year and figures to be one of the Mariners best pitching prospects going into 2011. And with the team rebuilding, a good year in AAA could land him in the majors.

And hey! He has a Fan Club!



MATTHEW LAWSON

The 24 year old second baseman tore up the Southern League pitching after arriving in the Mariners organization.

Where he fits in the long term plans of the Mariners is unknown with middle infielders Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley and Carlos Triunfel also in the organization.

But hey! A little competition never hurt anyone.




JOSH LUEKE

An exceptionally talented reliever, Lueke put up terrific numbers wherever he went. So why isn't a feel good story?

Well because in 2009 he only played in four games in the Rangers organization.
When the Mariners inquired why, Rangers GM Jon Daniels basically said "Oh there was some legal trouble, but he got acquitted."

Turns out he wasn't. He was in jail for some lurid incident with a woman in 2008. I have no clue what actually happened, but the fact that "false imprisonment" was the LESSER charge that was in the plea bargain, it makes me shudder.

When word got out of his past, both the Mariners and Rangers did the whole "I'm shocked! SHOCKED!" routine and the Mariners scouting director got fired.

Obviously he wasn't acquired as a "good character" guy.

JUSTIN SMOAK

The centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal, Smoak may not have been a Rookie of the Year candidate. But he has a sweet left handed swing that was good enough to get 13 homers in 397 plate appearances.

One of Baseball America's Top 25 prospects in 2009 and 2010, he has nothing left to prove in AAA. He is the Mariners starting first baseman going into next year. The Mariners hope he will be an All Star before long.




It's too early to tell who got the best deal.

Carlos Carasco and company could thrive in Cleveland or fizzle.
The Phillies prospects look like busts now but they could turn it around.
Justin Smoak could be the next great hitting prospect or he could be Dave McCarty.

One thing is certain: When Cliff Lee's inevitable 7 year contract is up, some of these players might be filing for free Agency.

THEN we can really see what team got the best out of the deals.

The Mets and Cubs should trade their trash

I am currently writing a new post for The Hardball Times where I try to put together a mega trade involving lousy contracts.



I wrote two similar pieces last off season... one where I had a three way trade involving Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito.



The other one was a 9 team 11 player deal that was totally insane... although one part of it DID come true: Carlos Silva was in fact traded for Milton Bradley.



So I was doing the same thing this year... put together a mega trade of insanely bad long term contracts (Zito, Wells and Soriano are still subjects although Wells did have a good year for Toronto.)



And I was going to suggest which expensive short team deals should be swapped. (As I said before, who knows? A change of scenery might be what some of these guys need.)



As I was compiling a list of rotten 2011 contracts, I noticed something.

A lot of them were Met players.

And a lot of them were on the Cubs.



It just goes to show that a big payroll does not always mean a winning product.

The Cubs had the highest payroll in the National League.

The Mets had the third highest payroll in the National League.



Both had losing seasons and were not a factor in any playoff chase.



But guess what, Cubs and Mets fans! A lot of the same players who put on an uninspired yet expensive show for you ARE COMING BACK!



I say let's shake a few things up.



Take the bad contracts for the Mets, swap them for the bad contracts from the Cubs.

The worst thing that will happen is they will both have bad teams with big payrolls.



But guess what? That will happen no matter what!



The best thing that could happen is one of the players blossoms in a new environment. Maybe a new coach will give him some good advice. Maybe a player will relax wearing a new uniform without people reminding him how awful his contract is.



Maybe a new player will just fit in well with a different group of guys.



Maybe someone will say "Hey, my contract is running out. I should pull an Adrian Beltre and put together a great season."



So let's make the big trade.

The Cubs acquire





Carlos Beltran





Jason Bay





Francisco Rodriguez





Luis Castillo



plus Cash

The Mets acquire





Carlos Zambrano







Aramis Ramirez





Kosuke Fukudome





Carlos Silva





John Grabow

So let's take a look at what each team gets...



THE CUBS

If they catch lightning in a bottle, they can get Carlos Beltran playing for one more contract and have the yoke of New York off of his shoulders.



They can get Jason Bay happy to be swinging in a hitters ballpark again.



It is safe to say that Francisco Rodriguez isn't fitting in with New York. But what if all he needs is a change of scenery?



And Luis Castillo... wouldn't it be nice to see the guy who hit "The Bartman Ball" in Wrigleyville?



THE METS

Carlos Zambrano's time in Chicago might be winding down. Yeah he looked like a good soldier coming back, but anytime a team's ace needs time away for some sort of anger management, it might be time to change addresses. If he gets his act together he can be a wonderful 1-2 punch with Santana. Or he could beat up new manager Terry Collins. Either way, it would be fun to watch.



Aramis Ramirez has been super injury prone since signing his behemoth of a contract so maybe a change of position would be ideal for him. First base? Left field? Or probably sitting his butt on the bench while on the disabled list.



Kosuke Fukudome hasn't been the Ichiro type of superstar that the Cubs were hoping for. But he has some pop in his bat and maybe decreased expectations could help. Thanks to Kaz Matsui, there is no way he will ever be the biggest Japanese flop in Mets history. And if he plays badly for the Mets, it's not like he has a last name that New York fans could turn into an obscene chant.



With Carlos Silva the Mets get a guy who got off to a great start last year before injuries caught up with him. Perhaps he can stay healthy long enough to contribute. After Santana, Pelfrey and Zambrano, he'd be a nice #4 starter.



And John Grabow had a truly rotten year for the Cubs... but he is left handed and can pitch, ergo he is a millionaire several times over.







After the dust settles on this trade, the Cubs would have sent $82.16 million in payroll to the Mets.



The Mets would have sent $87 million in payroll to the Cubs (so the cash makes up the difference.)



And after 2011, all of the players would be off the Mets roster save for Carlos Zambrano who would have one more season at $18 million... so they would have almost $65 million of salaries coming off the books for 2012.



The Cubs? They would be on the hook for Jason Bay, but he could be an ideal fit in that hitters ballpark the way he was in Boston. Meanwhile they'd have $55 million to spend after the 2011 season.



But then again, neither one of these teams seem very good at spending money wisely. Otherwise they wouldn't have to deal all of these big contracts.



Now for those of you who are wondering why I didn't include Alfonso Soriano nor Oliver Perez in these deals... well just wait. I am working out two more blockbuster trades that should happen but won't.



Players WILL be on the move!



At least in my strange parallel universe.