A payroll thought about the Red Sox and Diamondbacks

Here's something to think about when people bring up payroll and how money brings in pennants.

The Diamondbacks won 94 games, overtook the World Champion Giants and nearly got into the NLCS.

The Red Sox collapsed under the weight of their overblown expectations and lousy pitching staff.

The Diamondbacks payroll was $53.6 million.
The Red Sox payroll was $161 million.

Let me put that a different way:
The Diamondbacks payroll was lower than what the Red Sox paid John Lackey, Carl Crawford, J. D. Drew and Daisuke Matsuzaka for their 2011 seasons.

It might be time for the Red Sox to get younger.

Two wins away from quieting the complainers

What are the biggest complaints you hear fans say about the state of baseball?

Two I constantly hear are "The Northeast Bias" and "If you don't have a huge payroll, you don't have a shot."

OK... now look at the current playoff situation.

Let's say the Tigers beat the Yankees tonight. It's one game. Anything can happen in one game.
Let's say the Cardinals are loose and take advantage of a tight Phillies team. (Like YOU thought this series was going 5 games!)

Those are two games, each being won by the visiting team. Not anything outrageous (like both the Braves AND Red Sox flopping down the stretch.)

Guess what would be the result?

No team east of Detroit would be in the post season.
St. Louis... Texas... Detroit... and either Arizona or Milwaukee.

And guess what would ALSO happen?

The top 9 payrolls in baseball would all be playing golf during the LCS.

If these two events happen, the Yankees and Phillies (1 and 2 in payroll) would join #3 Boston, #4 Anaheim, #5 White Sox, #6 Cubs, #7 Mets, #8 Giants and #9 Twins on the links.

No coast teams.
None of the top 30% of the top payrolls.

If that happens, I expect a LOT of people who complain about the state of baseball to be watching... and cheering... and realizing the myths of the inequity of balance in baseball is just that.

I talked about it before the Super Bowl this year. I stand by everything I said.

Some pretty low expectations in Dodger Town

The Dodgers can meet payroll and suddenly that is cause for celebration?
Seriously, that is what it has come to?

Congrats Mr. McCourt. You own one of the most famous baseball teams who play in the second biggest market in the country with a rabid fan base and you have made enough money to not bounce the checks.

MAZELTOV!

Now what are you going to do NEXT month?
You can't pull the Winona Ryder in Reality Bites trick of paying for everyone's gas.

The Dodgers will start dumping players in 2 weeks.

Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong

There are two commonly accepted ideas about baseball regarding payroll and the playoffs... and both have become conventional wisdom:




1. Only the teams with the biggest payrolls can have any success

2. It's the same teams year in and year out.


Let's look at #1.
In 2007, yes the team with the second highest payroll, the Red Sox, won the World Series.
But the other three teams that advanced to the League Championship Series were all in the bottom third of payrolls.

Cleveland - 23 out of 30
Colorado - 25 out of 30
Arizona - 26 out of 30

The NLCS was between the 4th and 5th lowest payrolls in the National League.
Meanwhile the 3rd, 4th and 6th highest payrolls all were on the golf course when the playoffs began.

And it gets even more pronounced this year.
Which team has the highest payroll? The New York Yankees... playing golf.
Which team has the second highest payroll? The Detroit Tigers... FORE!
Which team has the third highest payroll? The New York Mets... no doubt stuck in a sand trap.

Meanwhile the second lowest payroll in all of baseball... the Tampa Bay Rays... won their division.
For $6.6 million less than what the Yankees paid for only Carl Pavano, Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu... Tampa Bay has home field advantage in the first round.

Meanwhile the Florida Marlins, with a $22 million payroll (again, less than Jason Giambi's salary) finished with a better record than the NL West Champion Dodgers.


Let's look at #2.

Do you know how many teams played in the post season in 2006, 2007 AND 2008?
None.
Zilch.
You can write it on an atom.
De nada.

Not the Yankees... not the Red Sox... not the Dodgers... not the Mets... not the Cardinals.
Nobody.

Can you imagine the NFL or NBA playoffs without some of the constants making the playoffs?

And take it back a year... since 2005... the League Championship Series seen 11 out of a possible 12 different teams play.
The only team in that span to play in more than one LCS?
The Yankees? The Red Sox?
Nope... the Cardinals, who lost in 2005 and won in 2006.

I know I made a lot of these points last year... but you people are NOT LISTENING TO ME!!!!

In this case, conventional wisdom is wrong.