C. J. Wilson wants SIX YEARS?

Yup.

He's seeking a SIX YEAR deal.

He has had 2 good years as a starter.

He is 30 and he has 2 good years.

A 6 year $100 some odd contract means that not only are you expecting him to TRIPLE his number of good years but do so as he gets deeper into his 30s.

When Brandon Webb was 29 he had won a Cy Young Award and had two second place Cy Young finishes between 2006 and 2008.

He looked like a great choice to lock up to a big long deal.

He's pitched one game since he turned 30 in 2009.

Johan Santana looked like he was putting together a Hall of Fame career. He had won 2 Cy Young Awards (and probably should have won a third) before his 29th birthday. He was 200 innings in the bank and an almost lock for the ERA title.

He missed all of the 2011 season at age 32 and his career is in jeopardy.

By age 26, Jake Peavy was a Cy Young Award winner with 2 strike out titles and 2 ERA titles. Since turning 28 he has thrown three injury plagued seasons.

At age 28 Barry Zito had won a Cy Young Award, was one of the most durable pitchers in the game and had experience in 5 different post seasons. By 30 he was an expensive and unreliable behemouth who was left off the playoff roster in 2010.

Every pitcher I just listed was a MUCH better bet to sign to a long term deal than C. J. Wilson.

Try learning from the past!

I said it before and I'll say it again... STAY AWAY FROM C.J. WILSON!

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Has anyone else noticed the White Sox?

I picked the White Sox at the beginning of the season, yet here they are as a sub .500 team after the All Star Break.

They have fallen to third place and there are some rumblings that they might be trading some of their expensive pieces (possibly Edwin Jackson whose shutout yesterday made his value go up.)

So all is lost in the South Side, right?

Not so fast.

They are trailing the Tigers and the first place Indians.
They beat the Tigers at home each of the last 2 games and are off to a quick 3-0 lead today.

And the Indians are up and down and can fall into a slump at any time.
The White Sox can hit...
They have a bunch of arms in their bullpen.

And there is talent in their rotation. Philip Humber, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy and John Danks all have talent. They just haven't as a group pitched to their ability. (The depth of their starting staff is what made me pick them back in March.)

Let's say the starting staff has a solid August and September.
Let's say the Indians come back to Earth (they can't play the Orioles EVERY weekend) and the Tigers return to the pack.

None of those scenarios are outlandish.

Guess what?
Even sub .500... even with the disappointing pitching staff...
The White Sox are only 4 back in the standings and 5 back of the Indians in the loss column.

In 2 and a half months, they can make up some ground.

Don't be fooled with the .489 winning percentage.
They are contending.

Did the Astros blow it?

I've been saying the Astros should deal Roy Oswalt since before the 2009 season... and I've been adamant about it.

And I warned them that if they wait too long they could end up like the Orioles with Brian Roberts... where he was the prime trade chip but they never pulled the trigger. And now he is hurt and has no value.

Well look what happened today. He has a ball hit his ankle and shortens his day.

Now it isn't going to bring back memories of Dave Dravecky's arm snapping, but if he comes back in his next start and stinks, then any trade suitor might think he is damaged goods. And with only 2 weeks until the trade deadline, even one bad start could torpedo a trade.

In other words, the Astros, who should have been wheeling and dealing in the spring, could be sitting on a #1 starter trade chip at the deal deadline and won't be able to move him.

Yeah yeah yeah, his contract is big. Something could have been worked out. The Padres got a bunch of solid young players, including Clayton Richard, for Jake Peavy.

Almost every team could use a pitcher like Oswalt... and they may have let this chance to get a building block or two slip away.

To paraphrase Robert DeNiro in CopLand, you had a chance to deal Roy Oswalt AND YOU BLEW IT!

Nobody knows who the big trade deadline winner is!

The trade deadline came and went and of course it is always one of the coolest days of the year for a baseball fan.

It's the sports equivalent of Randolph and Mortimer Duke trying to corner the frozen concentrated orange juice. And of course rumors flew, trades were analyzed, and some stunning deals took place.

Some teams decided to go for it, like the Mariners when they acquired Jack Wilson and Ian Snell.

Other teams decided to cash it in, like the Mariners who dealt Jarrod Washburn?

Confused?

So was I when I saw the Rangers had stockpiled prospects and were within striking distance of the AL West and the Wild Card...and stayed pat.

So was I when I saw the Yankees with a glaring need for a starter and a lefty reliever saying "We're fine with Jerry Hairston."

So was I when I saw the White Sox say "We don't care if he is hurt and clearly doesn't want to play for us... we NEED Jake Peavy!"

So was I when I realized the Red Sox felt they didn't have ENOUGH first basemen.

So was I when I saw Riccardi say "Nah... we think it's best to deal Roy Halladay when his value dips!"

But now EVERYONE is writing up their "Winners and losers of the trade deadline" articles. And the funny thing about every one of those write ups is they are all meaningless now.

We don't know!
Sure, it looks like the Phillies are a big winner with Cliff Lee throwing a complete game victory in his first game for the Phils. But what if he slumps? Or what if he doesn't throw well in Philadelphia?

I made fun of the Yankees picking up Jerry Hairston, but what if he gets some big hits down the stretch?

Sometimes what looks like a big time move at the deadline can look downright rotten when the season ends.

Just taking Red Sox deals as an example, in 2007 I celebrated the pick up of Eric Gagne.

There wasn't a lot of reasons to crow after the deadline.

I remember in 2002, Cliff Floyd came over to the Sox in what was supposed to be a tide turner.

And in 2003, when the Red Sox acquired Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck from the Pirates, it looked like they got the pitching depth they desperately needed.

How did those turn out?

And in 2004, who noticed the Red Sox picked up Dave Roberts? NOBODY! And now he is a beloved Red Sox icon.

We don't know how any of these trades will pan out and we won't for a few years.

When the Tigers traded for Doyle Alexander on August 12, 1987, Detroit was 1 1/2 games behind the Blue Jays.

He went 9-0 for the rest of the season for the Tigers.
Not only did he win all 9 decisions (and the Tigers clinched the division on the final day of the season, so needed every win) but he pitched remarkably in crucial games.

He beat the eventual World Champion Twins twice. He outdueled the eventual Cy Young winner Roger Clemens. He got a no decision pitching into the 11th inning of a 13 inning win against the Blue Jays on September 27th. And finally on October 2nd, he pitched 7 strong against the Blue Jays as the Tigers tied them for the Division Lead... only to clinch 3 days later.

The Tigers got all of that production and did have to sacrifice a single player from their major league roster.

And this writer calls THAT trade one of the worst of all time FOR THE TIGERS.

Of course that's because the minor leaguer the Tigers parted with was John Smoltz.

But the trade won the division... and what else can the GM do besides give the manager the horses he needs to get into October.

Writers should be banned from analyzing this years trade deadline and instead breakdown the deadline from 5 years ago.

I'd do it, but I need to go to bed.
Perhaps tomorrow.

I guess Jake Peavy knew something that we didn't!

I thought it was odd when Jake Peavy rejected the trade to the White Sox.

He had a chance to leave a team that seemed destined to be a non contender and go to a defending Division Champ playing in a totally winnable division.

But I thought "Hey, he'd be leaving a ballpark that pads his stats to go to a launching pad and face the DH."

Then I thought "He'd be leaving the only organization he ever knew."

And I also thought "He's a married man with kids, and San Diego is a much nicer place in the summer than Chicago." That is not a knock against Chicago. I love Chicago. How many "Transplanted San Diegans" do you know?

And I remember he's making $6 million a year.

And he's 11 wins away from passing the late Eric Show as the all time wins leader in San Diego Padres history.

Guess what? There's another factor:

THE PADRES SUDDENLY CAN'T LOSE!

They followed up a 6 game losing streak that got the front office thinking fire sale and no doubt got manager Bud Black updating his resume with a 10 game winning streak!

Including the amazing comeback from a 7-1 deficit in yesterday's game. 

Suddenly the White Sox are sub .500 and the Padres have a winning record.

And while the Dodgers are running away with the West, the Padres are only 3 games behind Wild Card leading St. Louis.

And none of the teams ahead of the Padres (the Cardinals, the Reds, the Mets and the Braves) exactly look like the 1927 Yankees.

What I am saying is Peavy might as well stay put.

Maybe the Padres will make a deal to improve their team.

Maybe they'll deal with the White Sox!

Cain is not the Giants lineup's keeper

It must be nice for Matt Cain to get a run... or 4.

Edgar Renteria's grand slam tonight off of Jake Peavy was that very odd and rare occurrence in baseball:

Run support for Matt Cain.

The guy has posted sub 4.00 ERAs the last two seasons with 200 or more innings in both years.

Not saying that is Cy Young caliber, but in this day and age, that's pretty dang good.

Certainly better than his 7-16 record in 2007 and his 8-14 record last year would indicate.

He's 2-0 now. If the offense keeps hitting for him, who knows? He might turn that around.

I wouldn't hold your breath, but he should be happy today

Hey Cubs... Braves... bet you are glad you didn't make the Peavy trade NOW!

You know that cliche about how sometimes the best trade you make is the one you DIDN'T make?

Boy oh boy does that ring true for the Cubs and Braves! Remember how the Padres were asking the Cubs for Félix Pié, Garrett Olsen or Jeff Samardzija in a Peavy deal?

Remember how the Braves were being tempted to part with prospects Jordan Schafer and possible ace Tommy Hanson?

Peavy isn't looking too good right now, is he?

Granted it's the WBC and not games that matter or anyone cares about. But when terms like "Mercy Rule" are employed, you had better see Walter Matthau managing the team... not with a Cy Young winner on the hill.

If the Padres stalled the trade talks they are probably kicking themselves pretty hard now.

On the bright side for Peavy, if he stays in San Diego and gets 15 wins, he'll be the all time victory leader in Padres history.

Then again, the way he's been pitching, 15 wins might be a stretch. Heck, just throw 15 innings!