C. J. Wilson wants SIX YEARS?

Yup.

He's seeking a SIX YEAR deal.

He has had 2 good years as a starter.

He is 30 and he has 2 good years.

A 6 year $100 some odd contract means that not only are you expecting him to TRIPLE his number of good years but do so as he gets deeper into his 30s.

When Brandon Webb was 29 he had won a Cy Young Award and had two second place Cy Young finishes between 2006 and 2008.

He looked like a great choice to lock up to a big long deal.

He's pitched one game since he turned 30 in 2009.

Johan Santana looked like he was putting together a Hall of Fame career. He had won 2 Cy Young Awards (and probably should have won a third) before his 29th birthday. He was 200 innings in the bank and an almost lock for the ERA title.

He missed all of the 2011 season at age 32 and his career is in jeopardy.

By age 26, Jake Peavy was a Cy Young Award winner with 2 strike out titles and 2 ERA titles. Since turning 28 he has thrown three injury plagued seasons.

At age 28 Barry Zito had won a Cy Young Award, was one of the most durable pitchers in the game and had experience in 5 different post seasons. By 30 he was an expensive and unreliable behemouth who was left off the playoff roster in 2010.

Every pitcher I just listed was a MUCH better bet to sign to a long term deal than C. J. Wilson.

Try learning from the past!

I said it before and I'll say it again... STAY AWAY FROM C.J. WILSON!

sullybaseball on Twitter">

Hey get your red hot aces here!

A week ago, I talked about the three aces who should be dealt and give their old teams a needed shot of youth and their new teams hope on October.

Well if these three are indeed going to be dealt, their teams would be smart to pull the trigger NOW!

Based on their last performances, they are bringing their A game.

Johan Santana pitched last night against Milwaukee and gave the Mets 8 shutout innings, 3 hits and got 2 hits himself.

Of course the Mets might be just diluted enough to think they have a shot this season. You don't... replenish the farm.

Roy Oswalt pitched on Wednesday and he also went 8 shutout innings, getting (for him) a rare win.

Last night Lee overcame a sloppy first inning to go 8 innings, 2 earned runs and 10 Ks.

Seriously Mets, Astros and Mariners... pull the trigger now.
You'd hate to see someone get an injury and suddenly you've got no bait.

The season is 1/3 done... time to look towards 2011.

Three Aces Wild

Making preseason predictions is often an act in futility.
If you don't believe me, look at my predictions for 2007...
And if you are still not convinced, look at my predictions for 2008...
And if that wasn't enough, why not take a gander at my predictions last year...

But one thing that makes picks so worthless is of course the team that plays in April will inevitably be different that the team that plays in October. While midseason trades are usually all hype and not a lot of true impact, dealing for a true ace in midseason could be the difference between playing for a pennant or playing golf in October.

You just have to look at the Indians trading away their two Cy Young winners, Sabathia and Lee, to see how October can be affected by dealing an ace.

And for teams falling out of contention, trading away an ace could bring about much needed building blocks for the future.

Joe Carter, John Smoltz, Brady Anderson, Randy Johnson and Carlos Guillen, among others, were picked up by teams in mid season trades for pitching.

This year there are three legit aces... three difference making pitchers who are pitching for teams that are going nowhere.

One SHOULD be traded. One is ASKING to be traded. And one will INEVITABLY.

Let's look at the one who SHOULD be traded first:

JOHAN SANTANA

Santana was supposed to be for the Mets what Curt Schilling was to the Red Sox in 2004. With the Mets falling a Carlos Beltran called third strike short of the World Series in 2006 and the epic collapse of 2007... Omar Minaya needed to make a bold move.

And he did so bringing in the American League's best pitcher to Queens. And you can't blame Santana for the collapse of 2008! He won his last 7 decisions in '08 including a complete game shutout on the second to last game of the season to keep hope alive in Flushing.

But the Mets aren't an ace away from winning anymore. Their nice April not withstanding, they are a sinking team. Don't believe me? On April 30th, the Mets were in first place, 5 games over .500. They are 6-14 since and their pitching staff and lineup are wearing down... and their farm system is notoriously bare.

Sure, Santana gives them a great arm every 5 days, but this team needs a shot in the arm and Santana's trade value may never be this high. A little honesty in the Mets front office would have them admit they are not catching the Phillies (they are already a full week behind Philadelphia) and don't have the horses to compete.

The team trading for Santana would have him for three more seasons... so the Mets could get as many as three pieces to a long term puzzle. Will they do it? Probably not. It's the smart thing to do, which isn't the Mets way of doing things.


Now for the one who is ASKING to be traded.
ROY OSWALT

I've been screaming for the Astros to trade Oswalt since the beginning of 2009. And with today's news that Oswalt is waiving his no trade clause, it looks like it is going to happen.

This is his 10th season for the Astros and he was the MVP of the 2005 NLCS, the Astros lone trip to the World Series, so no doubt he has a lot of affection for Houston and the team.

But this team sucks. He knows it. We all know it. And while he is in the top 10 in the NL for ERA and WHIP, he is also second in the league in losses!

He has a 2-6 record. Only Charlie Morton (he with the 9.68 ERA) has more losses. Oswalt has pitched 6 innings in all 9 of his starts this year and has given the Astros 7 innings 6 times. He's averaged 7 innings and about 2 1/2 runs a start for his last 5 starts... and has an 0-4 record to show for it.

Like the Mets, the Astros cupboard is bare on the farm and Oswalt should fetch at least 2 players ready to insert on the big league team.

Now the ace who will be INEVITABLY traded.
CLIFF LEE

Have the Mariners woken up (along with Ken Griffey Jr) from their first quarter nap?

10 days ago I said I wasn't sure what the Mariners should do with their season. Cliff Lee won that day... then the Mariners lost 7 of their last 8 before winning 2 in a row.

They have Lee and Hernandez back, Griffey has some clutch hits and Milton Bradley is back from therapy... and they are still the third worst team in the American League.

There is a better chance that the Cubs will call to reacquire Bradley than Cliff Lee being a Mariner in 2011... and short of a massive winning streak, this Mariner team isn't contending.

90 wins will probably win the West. The Mariners are on pace for 59. Forget .500, the Mariners are trying to reach .400 at this point.

They dealt away some good prospects to Philadelphia, Toronto, Oakland and I think Manchester United by the time the deal was done. It was a nice idea... but they need to think about 2011 now.



So think about the landscape of contenders now. You know two of these pitchers will be wearing new uniforms by the time October rolls around and possibly all three. And whatever contender picks them up will suddenly have a new potent weapon. A playoff contender could get over the hump, like the Brewers a few years ago when they picked up Sabathia.

A pennant contender could overcome their weaknesses with a new ace, like the Phillies last year with Cliff Lee.

Contenders like the Rangers, the Rays, the Cardinals, the Twins and the Tigers could use an arm to put them over the top.

Heavy weights like the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox and Dodgers (divorce not withstanding) all have pitching issues. Acquiring an ace would give the team a nice jolt of adrenaline.

It will change the entire complexion of the pennant race if and when these deals are made... and make me feel not as bad for making lousy predictions in April!

THE CY YOUNG DOZEN

I know I have written about the NL Cy Young race a bit, but I truly find it to be fascinating. Yeah, it is early, but I don’t recall the last time I have seen this many legit candidates all get out of the gate so quickly. And as someone who loves dominating stud pitchers, this year in the NL seems to be a bumper crop!

Nobody in the AL is dominating like the top NL pitchers, and the usual suspects (Verlander, Sabathia, Lester, Beckett, Hernadnez, Greinke) aren’t putting up numbers the way that the NL’s top 12 are.

2006 wasn’t that long ago that the National League honored Brandon Webb with the Cy Young award for his solid but not exactly eye popping season.

This year? I doubt if Webb had the same season in 2010 that he would crack the top 5 when all is said and done.

I’ve counted 12 pitchers who are either former Cy Young winners off to solid starts, true aces who are dominating and a few guys whose careers looked over by the end of last year who are coming out blazing.

And this list of 12 doesn’t even include former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter, nor dark horse candidate Ricky NolascoBoth have shown moments of brilliance, as has reliever Matt Capps. But this top 12 is a hard party to crack.


Let’s list them…


Tim Lincecum

I truly believe if he can deliver a World Series title to San Francisco he will be the third biggest star in San Francisco sports history. He seems hellbent to make it 3 Cy Young Awards before his 27th birthday. He would have win #5 this afternoon if Brian Wilson could have held onto the 9th inning lead. Yet he still has a 1.27 ERA and leads the league in strikeouts. I guess that whole pot thing really slowed him down.


Ubaldo Jimenez

He is the first pitcher since Jack Morris in 1984 to start the season 5-0 with a no hitter. He is second in the league in innings pitched and has held opponents to a 0.79 ERA and a .186 average against. Oh yeah, he’s doing all of that in COLORADO!


Roy Halladay

Even with a loss the other day, Halladay is throwing like he wants Cy Young #2. Nobody has pitched more innings in the NL. He has 2 complete games and a shutout and his ERA is 1.80. And 5 of his 8 earned runs came in one start. I think it is safe to say it was a good pick up for Philadelphia.


Adam Wainwright

He has the second lowest WHIP in the league and been an innings eater with a pair of complete games. He also has a tiny 1.69 ERA and a .187 batting average against to go with his 3 wins.



Johan Santana

Santana had one truly lousy game against the Washington Nationals in early April where he let up 5 runs, 4 on a grand slam by Josh Willingham. He has let up a grand total of 3 other earned runs all season. He has a 3-1 record and even with the rocky start against Washington, has a more than respectable 2.08 ERA and has not let up more than 1 run in 4 of his 5 starts.

Mike Pelfrey

With all of these great performances out of the gate, do you know who LEADS the NL in ERA? That would by Pelfry, whose ERA is impressive (and snicker worthy) at 0.69. Throw in his 4-0 record and coming out of the bullpen to save the Mets 20 inning marathon and he deserves at least entry to the dance.



Dan Haren

Who is second in the league for strikeouts behind Lincecum? Surprise! It’s Haren who has 38 in 34 innings of work. His ERA is a mediocre 4.50 but he’s been winning games (3-1 record), been eating up innings (third in IP behind Jimenez and Halladay) and has only 8 walks in 5 starts.


Josh Johnson

The Marlins well paid ace got out of the gate slowly but has been showing his ace stuff lately, especially after a complete game 3 hitter with 12 strikeouts and one walk against the Padres on April 26th. He is now third in the league in strikeouts.



Barry Zito

Remember when Barry Zito was on everyone’s short list for worst free agent contracts? Well now he is off to a 3-0 start and is averaging nearly 7 innings a start while posting a 1.32 ERA. Oh, by the way… his .161 batting average against is the lowest in the National League! Not bad for a crummy contract.


Livan Hernandez

Yes. It’s the same Livan Hernandez. An after thought starting pitcher on a potentially god awful Nationals team, the beneficiary of the Late Eric Gregg’s strike zone has won 3 of his first 4 decisions including a complete game shutout. His 0.87 ERA and .176 Batting Average Against are both third best in the league and his WHIP is 4th best. Will he keep that up? Who am I to say?


Brad Penny

The same Brad Penny who was run out of Boston on a rail is 3-0 in St. Louis this year. His 0.94 ERA is 4th best in the league. He has gone at least 7 innings in all 4 of his starts and has yet to let up more than 2 runs in any of them.

Another headcase solved by Dave Duncan!


Carlos Silva

One team’s garbage is another team’s treasure. Dumped into Chicago from Seattle in exchange for lunatic Milton Bradley, the Cubs may have stolen a winner…or least rejuvenated a talented pitcher with a fresh start. In 4 starts and 26 innings, Silva has the lowest WHIP in the league, plus a tiny 1.73 ERA and the fourth lowest Batting Average Against in the NL. Throw in a 2-0 record and a 5-1 strikeout to walk ratio and the Cubs may have more than coffee grounds from Seattle. Meanwhile Bradley is flopping as a .204 hitter flipping off fans with the Mariners.


So it will be interesting to see how many of these dozen remain Cy Young contenders month to month... I am guessing pitchers like Santana and Johnson will see their numbers improve and the Pennys and the Silvas would come back to Earth.

But who knows? I guess YOU picked Zack Greinke to win the Cy Young last year!

A slow motion car wreck in Flushing, Queens

Did you ever have a tooth ache that you couldn't resist poking at with your tongue?

Ever have the urge to taste something that you know will be terrible?

I am sure some of you clicked on "Two Girls One Cup" knowing full well it was going to be gross.

Sometimes we are drawn to things that we KNOW are going to suck. Hell, I remember when I saw the trailer for Lady in the Water I remember thinking "Oh man, I HAVE to see it." And it didn't disappoint in its transcendent awfulness.

Well folks that's what is going to be happening with the Mets this season.

It is going to be ugly... it is going to be squirm in your seat awkward... and I personally won't be able to take my eyes off of the carnage.

This isn't exactly a new stance for me. I've been calling for the Mets to dismantle since January.

The Carlos Beltran knee fiasco and the bringing in of Gary Matthews Jr and Kelvim Escobar (not to mention the parade of players who said "thanks but no thanks" to the Mets offers) made me realize this injury plagued veteran team is going into 2010 with MORE veterans who are injury prone.

Met fans who disagreed with me said they still have Reyes, Santana and Wright and that's not a bad foundation.

That was before this whole bizarre thyroid condition that could keep Jose Reyes out for a while.

Oh yeah we are being told that it is only 2 to 8 weeks.

After the whole Carlos Beltran knee fiasco, the Mets are clearly a good source for guessing recovery times.


And Johan Santana got rocked in his first game back from injury. Now yes, it is a spring training game and normally I don't put much stock in what is essentially a practice game.

But he is coming back from injury... and what if this is the beginning of a decline?

He's had 6 great seasons, a pair of Cy Young awards and looked like he was Hall of Fame bound... and he very well might be.

But what if he is a Bret Saberhagen, Frank Viola, Orel Hershiser, Fernando Valenzuela, Dave Stewart or David Cone type. A guy who dominated for a stretch but not long enough for a Cooperstown career.

As Santana goes into his 30s, if he is anything less than dominant, then the Mets rotation will be 5 question marks.

And David Wright showed that CitiField wasn't exactly the best place in the world for a right handed power hitter to play (something Jason Bay probably should have looked into.)

And without Beltran, Reyes nor Delgado in the lineup, why on Earth would he see a fat pitch to hit all year?


Toss in the fact that the front office is in perpetual turmoil, management that is still counting their pennies after Bernie Madoff made his way with the owners, a manager that just seems happy to be employed and having the biggest baddest baseball team in the world across town.

Forget playoffs... does any team really see this as a .500 team now?

They have no shot at the Division title. That is Philadelphia's to lose.
As for the Wild Card, would you honestly pick the Mets over the Marlins? The Brewers? The Dodgers? The Rockies? The Diamondbacks? The Giants?

Remember this is not a team that just missed the postseason last year... this is a 92 loss team that got WORSE!

They are more likely to lose 100 games in an empty CitiField.

This team reminds me of the post Messier Rangers and the Isiah Thomas era Knicks. Both teams got old, but the front office kept signing big priced players because "New York needs stars and won't tolerate a loser."

In came Fleury, Lindros, Kovalev, Jagr and Holik to the Rangers. They were expensive, the Blue Shirts missed the playoffs every year, Madison Square Garden was empty and nobody cared.

And of course the Knicks brought in Marbury, Curry, Rose and Francis... and the team became the laughing stock of basketball.

Ask any Ranger fan or Knick fan of that era if they would rather have seen young players miss the playoffs or old expensive players miss the playoffs!

Ask the MSG network how their ad revenue was during that era. I am guessing not that good.

The Rangers didn't get to be relevant again until they decided "heck, let's just play young guys."

The Knicks are nowhere near relevant and their sole plan seems to be "Hey! We'll sign LeBron James!" (If King James stays in Cleveland, there is no plan B at the corner of 34th street and 7th Avenue.)

So that's where the Mets are headed. They already are old expensive and irrelevant. But they are on the express track to being that gruesome YouTube video that you dare your friends to watch.

I would say "blow the team up" but the problem is it already has blown up... the Mets just don't know it yet.

NLeast

I saw the Mets had Johan Santana dealing against Tampa Bay today and I thought to myself "Well, he's found his stuff again."

I went out to do some work today and then came back... saw Tampa Bay won.

I shook my head thinking "Man oh man, the Mets just can't catch a break."

Then later...

I made dinner for my kids and I saw the Phillies came from behind to take the lead against the not exactly world beaters known as the Orioles.

I fed them dinner, gave them desert, cleaned off their plates and checked the scores.

Some how, some way the Orioles won in the 9th. The bullpen let up TWO 9th inning homers?

Doesn't anyone want to win this Division?

With the Marlins winning again, I wouldn't be too complacent if I were the two presumptive favorites.

Ah that Mets Bullpen!

Well the Marlins got their groove back because of the Mets lousy bullpen.

Johan Santana lost another decision and yet another one slipped away.

The Mets bullpen have already lost 5 games.

Didn't the Mets improve their bullpen?

Now I am expecting a few angry Mets responses, including my anonymous reader who called me "A fat no talent fool from the lucky sperm club."

Well as a card carrying member of the Lucky Sperm Club, I will tell you that I can fake talent and lose weight... but that won't change the fact that the Mets bullpen sucks and this is going to haunt the team down the stretch.

(Lucky sperm club? Is he implying that my dad got me this blog?)

Aces

There are actually still some Yankee fans who think it was a good thing their team didn't deal Phil Hughes (zero wins in 2008) and Melky Cabrera (sent to the minor leagues) for Johan Santana (saved the Mets season.)

I equated going for the potential of Hughes versus the certainty of Santana was like saying "You can keep that million bucks... I have a lottery ticket!"

Of course the Yankees would have included a mid level prospect.
If the performance of their A level prospects was any indication, they wouldn't have missed one of their B prospects this year.

Now I don't know what is going to happen tomorrow.
Only that dude from Early Edition does.

But they got their money's worth from Santana for year one.
It's to bad that if there is a one game playoff between the Mets and Brewers that it wouldn't be Santana versus Sabathia.