THE KING IS CROWNED!!!!!!

YES!
Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award that was rightfully his.

And we can all breathe a nice sigh of relief that the writers voting didn't say "Hey! He didn't get as many wins... how good could he be?"

Best WAR for Pitchers.
The best ERA.
Best Hits per 9 IP.
2nd best WHIP.
Most innings pitched.
2nd in strikeouts (1 strikeout behind the leader.)
Most games started.
2nd most complete games (1 behind the leader.)
Best Adjusted Pitching Runs
Best Adjusted Pitching Wins
Best Base-Out Runs Saved
Best Situational Wins Saved
Best Base-out Wins Saved.

AND he won 13 games on a team that lost 101!

As I wrote before, he deserved it even if he was sub .500.

Good job writers... unlike the American Idol voters, you impressed me.

Hey Mariners... let's compromise on Felix Hernandez starting

So the Mariners are at home for the last day of the season... and I guess it is fitting for a year where many people picked them to win the AL West and instead lost 100 games that they are giving their fans nothing to cheer for on the last day.

Felix Hernandez, looking to cement a Cy Young resume that has everything except the eye popping win total (although winning 13 games on a 100 loss team isn't easy) has been shut down for the year.

You see, the young man has thrown too many innings. In fact he has more innings pitched than anyone in the American League.

He's thrown 249 2/3 innings... and evidently his arm will explode if he throws 250.

I get it... innings limits. It works. Just ask Joba Chamberlain and Stephen Strasburg.

But do you really want the final moment of the 2010 Mariners season a start by Ryan Rowland Smith?

The guy let up 11 earned runs in one start in July. I know I am supposed to ignore win totals, but 1-10 just sucks... and the 6.90 ERA doesn't help.

So here's what I propose, Mariners... for the fans.

Have Felix Hernandez start and throw two innings. Inevitably he will strike out 2 batters in those 2 innings.

Then remove him to a thunderous ovation.

Why 2 innings and 2 strikeouts?

2 innings will give him 251 2/3 innings... 1 more inning than Roy Halladay who leads the majors in that category.

He is also 1 strikeout behind big league leader Jared Weaver.

So those 2 innings will give him the most innings pitched in the bigs, the most strikeouts in the bigs, the lowest qualifying ERA in the bigs, and tied for the most starts in the bigs.

Those 2 innings and 2 strikeouts could make a compelling argument to even the old school voters that he pitched better than anyone in baseball this year.

And hey! That would mean people would be talking about the Mariners in the off season.

How nice would that be?
I would say nicer than a Ryan Rowland Smith start.

YES... you can be a .500 winner and deserve the Cy Young Award

I heard the panel on MLB last night talk about the American League Cy Young Award today and they unanimously picked C. C. Sabathia, mainly based on his 20 wins.

John Hart said that Felix Hernandez had the great numbers but his win total wasn't enough.

I don't claim to know more about baseball than John Hart nor the panel.
That being said, that is "smearing feces on the wall crazy."

And yesterday's game is a case in point.
Hernandez let up one run in the first inning... the 50th home run of the season by Jose Bautista.
That was the only blemish. He pitched a complete game, retiring 13 in a row at one point. He let up only one other hit besides the Bautista homer, walked 4 and faced 28 batters in 8 innings for the complete game.

He got the loss. So in John Hart's mind, 8 innings, 1 run and 2 hits is a performance that shows he is NOT worthy of a Cy Young.

Let me put it into clearer terms.

Here are the categories where Hernandez finishes ahead of Sabathia
(and he leads the league in the bold categories:)

ERA
INNINGS PITCHED
STRIKE OUTS
BATTERS FACED
ADJUSTED PITCHING RUNS
BASE OUT RUNS
SAVED SITUATION WINS SAVED
COMPLETE GAMES
COMPLETE GAME SHUTOUTS
WALKS AND HITS PER INNINGS PITCHED
BATTING AVERAGE AGAINST
STRIKEOUT PER 9 INNINGS
STRIKEOUT TO WALK RATIO
FEWEST HOME RUNS PER 9 INNINGS
ADJUSTED ERA +

Here are the categories where Sabathia finishes ahead of Hernandez
(and he leads the league in the bold categories:)

WINS
WIN LOSS PERCENTAGE

And that's it.

I don't even know what half of those stats mean for Hernandez... all I know he has pitched better all season. Was he supposed to throw more innings? Let up fewer runs? Strike out more batters? Nobody did ANY of those better than Hernandez!

I am not disrespecting Sabathia who is having a wonderful season. And I understand he has a role of the horse of the Yankee staff and has to shoulder the innings burden of a shaky rotation.

But keep in mind that 10 of his 20 wins have been against Baltimore, Seattle and Kansas City.

Nor am I putting down David Price who should finish in the top 3 in the Cy Young vote with Sabathia and Hernandez.

But both of them have All Stars in their line up and bullpen. I covered in an earlier post that with a team this bad, 12 wins IS an accomplishment!

And guess what? He is 3-0 against the Yankees.

In Hernandez's 12 losses, his team has scored a GRAND TOTAL of 14 runs.

Nice support.

I can go through Hernandez's line up that he had today... the fact that the number 3 hitter is a .236 batter and the clean up hitter is below the Mendoza line... but keep this in mind.

In a one run game they pinch hit for the #5 hitter.

Would the Yankees say "It's late in a close game. Send in someone to bat for Robinson Cano"?

Nope.

He's the Cy Young winner.
The numbers don't lie.

If not, then just automatically award the Cy Young to the guy with the most wins.

Felix Hernandez's win total is reason FOR his Cy Young Candidacy

I've been making the case for Felix Hernandez to win the Cy Young Award for about a month now and I have been alone.

Yes he leads the league in a lot of statistics that I don't completely understand...

Win Probability Added... Situational Wins... Base Out Wins Saved... Adjusted Pitching Wins... I am still learning how to quantify them. But King Felix leads all of those categories, which is impressive.

But this isn't just twisting some obscure numbers to make a point (a la the greatness of Colby Rasmus.)

He also leads the league in all sorts of categories that traditional voters drool over.

ERA? He's the best.
Strikeouts? He's the best.
Games started? He's the best.
Innings pitched? He's the best.

Not to mention being third in complete games and having the third lowest Walks and Hits per nine inning ratio.

Sounds like a Cy Young front runner to me!

But then people bring up his win total.
"Can we REALLY have a Cy Young winner who only has 12 wins?"

And my response to that is simple.
12 wins? Are you kidding me? He should win the Cy Young BECAUSE he got 12 wins with this God Awful Mariners team!

Now I don't consider wins to be a worthless stat (that IS the objective of the pitcher... to win the game) but it can also be an amazingly misleading stat.

Mitch Williams blew the lead in two beautiful pitched games by Curt Schilling in the 1993 NLCS... and Williams got the win for both games. A casual glance would see Williams having a 2-0 record in the series and Schilling's record being 0-0 and Williams would look like the dominating pitcher.

Harvey Haddix threw 12 perfect innings in a game in 1959, let up a run in the 13th and got the loss. I am going to go out on a limb and say he pitched well enough to get the win in that game.

So Sabathia and the other front runners (David Price, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester) all play for teams that will win 90 some odd games.

Hernandez's team has ALREADY lost 91 games.
They have only 56 wins all season.

12 by Hernandez.
Yup, that means there have been only 44 wins by the Mariners that WEREN'T Felix Hernandez.

And guess what? He plays for a team that said "We have a solution for the #4 hole! MILTON BRADLEY!"

While Sabathia's team and Price's team flip flop for the title "Best Team in Baseball" Hernandez has to go out each night and say "I hope Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Saunders can drive in a few runs and David Aardsma can hold the lead."

12 wins?
That's only 7 fewer than Sabathia, who has a team that can bring Lance Berkman and Curtis Granderson off the bench in some games. And has Rivera closing games.

That's only 6 fewer than Price who has the likes of Crawford, Longoria and Pena driving in runs and Soriano closing games.

12 wins is a REMARKABLE total when you look at the hand he was dealt!

Here's something to think about...
Hernandez's 12 wins represents roughly 21% of the Mariners wins for the year.

What would be 21% of the Yankees' 89 wins so far?

19 wins... the same total that Sabathia has.

So Hernandez IS winning at the same clip as CC Sabathia... he just has a worse supporting cast.

Cy Young inspite of 12 wins?
Try BECAUSE of 12 wins.

Man, Price and C. C. sure LOOKED like Cy Young contenders tonight

I've been singing the praises of Felix Hernandez to win the Cy Young Award since August.
And Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports agrees with me.

And I know I am not supposed to be seduced by David Price's and C. C. Sabathia's win loss total.

But holy cats they looked like a pair of aces tonight.

8 innings, no runs 9 strikeouts for Sabathia?
8 innings, no runs, 3 hits 2 walks for Price?

In a game for first place?

That's what you want in an ace.
I guess it is appropriate that neither will get a win.

King Felix wants his Cy Young

There is a Cy Young front runner pitching in Anaheim tonight and it is NOT the dude with 15 wins.

Ervin Santana is having a nice year but so far Felix Hernandez has been dominating everything but the win-loss column.

I really hope the Mariners win and more specifically Felix wins tonight. I want that win total around 14. I don't want a nitwit sports writer to NOT vote for the most dominating pitcher in the American League by saying "Is the league's best pitcher a 12 game winner?"

YES when they tried to have Milton Bradley as the clean up hitter.

I was making fun of the outcome of last night's Angels/Mariners game as irrelevant. But today? GO MARINERS!

Taking stock as the season winds down

I took stock on the season at the 1/3 mark, and then at the half way point.

I had promised to do so on Labor Day as the season goes into its final lap and here I am.

There's not much suspense for the Yankees, Rays, Rangers and Reds who all seem to have their playoff spots locked up.

But looking at San Diego and their current implosion shows you can never be 100% sure who is going to end up where. (Has anyone else noticed the Rockies aren't dead yet?)

There are injuries that make some of the awards up for grabs as well as some slumps that turned front runners into mere contenders... or in Tim Lincecum's case totally off the board.

So with more or less a month to go, let's take a look at the playoff picture and who should be in line for post season hardware (and compare those to my 1/3 picks and 1/2 way picks.)

If the playoffs started today...

AL East Champion New York Yankees
Would have home field advantage over
AL West Champion Texas Rangers

AL Central Champion Minnesota Twins
Would have home field advantage over
AL Wild Card Tampa Bay Rays

(The Chicago White Sox would be within 3 games in the loss column of a playoff spot.)

NL East Champion Cincinnati Reds
Would have home field advantage over
N. L. Wild Card Philadelphia Phillies

NL East Champion Atlanta Braves
Would have home field advantage over
NL West Champion San Diego Padres

(The Giants are within 1 game of a playoff spot.)

(At the 1/3 Mark, The Rays had home field over Oakland, the Twins had home field over the Yankees. The Cardinals had home field over the Braves while the Padres still had home field over the Reds

At the 1/2 way mark, the Yankees had homefield over the White Sox while the Rangers would host the Rays. Meanwhile the Braves would have homefield over the winner of a Rockies and Dodgers playoff while the Padres would have homefield over the Reds.)

AL MVP:
MIGUEL CABRERA, Tigers
I had Josh Hamilton here, but his ribcage injury might take him out of commission. Cabrera has the OPS, the Average, the power and ranks at the top of W.A.R. It's not his fault the Tigers faded.

In the running:
EVAN LONGORIA, Rays. ROBINSON CANO, Yankees. JOSH HAMILTON, Rangers.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Miguel Cabrera as the MVP.
At the 1/2 way mark, I had Josh Hamilton as the MVP.)

NL MVP:
JOEY VOTTO, Reds
He is pulling away from Pujols in OPS and is near the top in virtually every single offensive category. And oh yeah, his Reds have opened up a big lead with Joey Votto as their main man.

In the running:
ALBERT PUJOLS, Cardinals. CARLOS GONZALEZ, Rockies. ADRIAN GONZALEZ, Padres.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Albert Pujols as the MVP.
At the 1/2 was mark, I had Joey Votto as the MVP.)

AL CY YOUNG:
FELIX HERNANDEZ, Mariners
Yeah, I know his record is only 11-10. He also leads the league in ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched and a lot of other categories that I don't understand. If the Cy Young goes to the best pitcher, then King Felix is the best.

In the running:
CLAY BUCHHOLZ, Red Sox. CC SABATHIA, Yankees. TREVOR CAHILL, A's. DAVID PRICE, Rays.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Jon Lester as the Cy Young.
At the 1/2 way mark I had David Price as the Cy Young.)

NL CY YOUNG:

ROY HALLADAY, Phillies
The fascinating Cy Young chase could come down to the last few weeks. Right now Halladay has been the horse the Phillies need and has the gaudy stats to back up his "Ace" title. He right now is the pitcher to beat.

In the running:

UBALDO JIMENEZ, Rockies. ADAM WAINWRIGHT, Cardinals. CHRIS CARPENTER, Cardinals. TIM HUDSON, Braves. MAT LATOS, Padres.

(At the 1/3 mark AND the 1/2 was mark, I had Ubaldo Jimenez as the Cy Young.)

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
NEFTALI FELIZ, Rangers
A couple of bad games made his ERA swell, but he has supplied the AL West leading Rangers were a steady hand at the back end of the bullpen.

In the running:

BRIAN MATUSZ, Orioles. AUSTIN JACKSON, Tigers. JEREMY HELLICKSON, Rays. JOHN JASO, Blue Jays.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Mitch Talbot as the AL Rookie of the Year.
At the 1/2 way mark, I had Brennan Boesch as the Rookie of the Year.)

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
BUSTER POSEY, Giants
Posey has been everything and more that the Giants could have asked for. He hits for average, for power, gets on base and has supplied a team starved for offense a spark and a flair for the dramatic. Seems to be solid behind the plate as well.

In the running:
JAIME GARCIA, Nationals. GABY SANCHEZ, Marlins. JASON HEYWARD, Braves.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Jason Heyward as the Rookie of the Year.
At the 1/2 way mark, I had Jamie Garcia as the Rookie of the Year.)

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
OZZIE GUILLEN, White Sox
I was leaning towards Joe Maddon, but the recent surge by Ozzie's White Sox shows just how dangerous they can be. Could Manny's prescience be a positive thing in Chicago. They just want him for a month (maybe two.)

In the running:
RON WASHINGTON, Rangers. RON GARDENHIRE, Twins. JOE MADDON, Rays. JOE GIRARDI, Yankees.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Joe Maddon as the Manager of the Year.
At the 1/2 way mark, I had Ozzie Guillen as the Manager of the Year.)

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
DUSTY BAKER, Reds
The recent collapse by the Padres took Bud Black out of the running for top spot here. The Reds were supposed to be a fringe contender... not cruising to a Division title with home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

In the running:
BOBBY COX, Braves. JIM TRACY, Rockies. BUD BLACK, Padres.

(At the 1/3 mark AND the 1/2 way mark, I had Dusty Baker as the Manager of the Year.)

AL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

VLADIMIR GUERRERO, Rangers
How often do you pick up a 100 RBI guy from the scrap heap? There will me more responsibility on his shoulders with Josh Hamilton's injury.

In the running:
VERNON WELLS, Blue Jays. ALEX RIOS, White Sox. EDWIN JACKSON, White Sox. FRANCISCO LIRIANO, Twins.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Vernon Wells as the Comeback Player of the Year.
At the 1/2 way mark, I had Vladimir Guerrero as the Comeback Player of the Year.)

NL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
TIM HUDSON, Braves
Forget comeback player... Hudson is making a run at the Cy Young Award. 15 wins and a 2.30 ERA will do that.

In the running:
SCOTT ROLEN, Reds. RICKIE WEEKS, Brewers. AUBREY HUFF, Giants.

BIGGEST BUST IN THE AL:
JAVIER VAZQUEZ, Yankees
He was brought back to the Bronx to be a solid #2 starter as Yankee brass was convinced he no longer had the jitters that he showed in his first Yankee tour. It turns out he still had them. His starting stats have been disastrous for the Yankees who need rotation stability in order to repeat.

In the running:
JOSH BECKETT, Red Sox. JOBA CHAMBERLAIN, Yankees. MILTON BRADLEY, Mariners.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Josh Beckett as the biggest bust in the AL
At the 1/2 way mark I had Milton Bradley as the biggest bust in the AL)

BIGGEST BUST IN THE NL
JASON BAY, Mets
Bay had become a symbol of how the Mets use money poorly while the Yankees (at least in 2009) spent wisely. Everyone and their dog knew Jason Bay would struggle in CitiField, except evidently the Mets front office. His season ended in late July with a concussion, but his stats were ordinary at best with the Mets.)

In the running:
AKI IWAMURA, Pirates. ARAMIS RAMIREZ, Cubs. MARK DeROSA, Giants.

(At the 1/3 point I had Carlos Lee as the biggest bust in the NL
And at the 1/2 way point I had Carlos Zambrano as the biggest bust in the NL)


So here we go... the players in the running can all win some off season hardware with a push in September.

I hope to be back here at the end of the regular season talking about the great Red Sox comeback.

King Felix looked like a Cy Young winner tonight

Oh well... my dream of a healthy Red Sox rotation lasted, what? 90 minutes?

Dice-K is down for the count and heading back to the DL probably. Oh well... who were the Mariners throwing up there.

AHHHH. King Felix.
Man alive, it never rains but it pours. The only hope the Sox had for the nightcap was to knock the ace out of the game in the 8th. When they did it, suddenly it looked like a sweep was on tap. AND with the Rays and Yankees losing, I began calculating how much closer the Sox would be and how big the up coming series with the Rays could be.

And then... they couldn't get the runs in.

Ugh. An opportunity lost and once again the need to SWEEP series is shown.

Sadly, let's update the tally.

DODGED A BULLET GAMES - 44

April 4 - 9-7 win against Yankees (On Opening Night, the Red Sox overcome a 5-1 Yankee lead with a game tying HR by Pedroia and a go ahead passed ball.)
April 10 - 8-3 win against Kansas City (Beckett out pitches Zack Greinke and nearly gets decapitated by a line drive.)
April 14 - 6-3 win in Minnesota. (Okajima gets Morneau to pop up with the bases loaded in the 7th and Papelbon wiggled out of a 9th inning jam.)
April 20 - 7-6 win against Texas. (Darnell McDonald introduces himself to Boston with an 8th inning game tying homer and a walk off hit in the 9th.)
April 21 - 8-7 win against Texas. (The Red Sox were down 4-0 early only to win it on Youk's 2 out 11th inning double.)
April 23 - 4-3 win against Baltimore. (The Sox blow a 3-0 lead but win it on Adrian Beltre's bases loaded walk.)

April 24 - 7-6 win against Baltimore. (The Red Sox score 6 in the 7th and hold off a late Baltimore comeback attempt.)
April 26 - 13-12 win at Toronto. (The Sox blow an early 5-0 lead but hang on for dear life in a slugfest.)
April 27 - 2-1 win at Toronto. (Buchholz holds the Jays down for 8 but it takes a bases loaded walk in the 8th to go ahead.)
April 28 - 2-0 win at Toronto. (Daniel Bard wiggles out of trouble in the 8th to help Lester shut down the Blue Jays and finish the sweep.)
May 4 - 5-1 win against the Angels. (Juan Rivera misplays Jeremy Hermedia's 2 out flyball into a 3 run game winning double)
May 5 - 3-1 win against the Angels. (Papi and Beltre homer and the Sox hang on despite squandering many potential rallies.)
May 6 - 11-6 win against the Angels. (Dice-K puts the Red Sox in a 4-0 hole before they even bat. The Sox bats respond.)
May 10 - 7-6 win against the Blue Jays. (Sox blow an early 2-0 lead, take advantage of some errors and hang on.)
May 18 - 7-5 win in New York. (Sox climb back from a 5-1 hole. A day after hitting a walk off homer, Marcus Thames drops a fly ball to start the winning rally for the Sox.)
May 25 - 2-0 win in Tampa. (Big Papi supplies all the offense as Papelbon wiggles out of a 9th inning jam.)
May 29 - 1-0 win against Kansas City. (Zack Greinke holds the Sox to one run, but they make it stick)

June 1 - 9-4 win against Oakland. (Lackey puts the Sox in a 4-0 hole but Victor Martinez goes 5-5 and the Sox score 9 runs late.)
June 2 - 6-4 win against Oakland. (Dice-K puts the Sox in a 3-0 hole before they come to bat, but come back thanks to Papi's homer.)

June 8 - 3-2 win at Cleveland. (With Papelbon unavailable, Okajima, Ramirez and Bard hang on to make a winner out of Wakefield.)

June 19 - 5-4 win against the Dodgers. (Sox make 4 errors, blow a late lead and let Manny homer, but they win it in the bottom of the 9th on a Pedroia single.)
June 20 - 2-0 win against the Dodgers. (Dodgers blow an early bases loaded scoring opportunity and allow Buchholz to settle down for the win.)

June 24 - 13-11 win in Colorado. (The bullpen lets up 9 runs in 5 innings, but Pedroia homers 3 times including with 2 outs in the 10th to win a wild and stupid game.)
June 26 - 4-2 win in San Francisco. (An injury running the bases takes Buchholz out in the second, but the bullpen and Mike Cameron's bat and glove win the game.)
July 2 - 3-2 win against the Orioles. (Wakefield gets the win and J.D. Drew homers twice, but it is Nava's 2 out 8th inning bloop that landed between three fielders that breaks the tie.)

July 11 - 3-2 win in Toronto. (Jesse Litch took a no hitter into the 6th but back to back homers by McDonald and Big Papi win the game.)
July 17 - 3-2 win against Texas. (Youk ties the game in the 9th off of Cliff Lee and wins it in the 11th with a sacrifuce fly)
July 19 - 2-1 win at Oakland. (Beltre homers and Dice-K holds on to the win.)
July 22 - 8-6 win at Seattle. (Lackey lost a no hit bid in the 8th and the Mariners scored 5 in the 9th to tie before the Sox won in 13)
July 23 - 2-1 win at Seattle. (Bill Hall's barely fair homer gives the Sox the win on Beckett's return.)

July 26 - 6-3 win in Anaheim. (Papi homers twice and Buccholz and Papelbon each wiggle out of jams to get the win.)
July 27 - 4-2 win in Anaheim. (Jed Lowrie's 2 run 7th inning double gives the Sox the lead and makes a winner out of John Lackey. )

July 28 - 7-3 win in Anaheim. (Youk ties the game in the 7th with a homer and Scutaro wins it with an 8th inning grand slam to sweep the Angels.)
July 31 - 5-4 win against Detrout. (Big Papi hits a 3 run walk off double to crush the Tigers in the 9th.)
August 1 - 4-3 win against Detroit. (Sox blow a 3 run 9th inning lead but the Tigers throw away a 9th inning sacrifice bunt to give the Sox the win.

August 3 - 3-1 win against Cleveland. (Lowell homers on his first pitch back and plays sparkling defense to preserve the win.)

August 6 - 6-3 win in Yankee Stadium. (Cervelli drops an easy pop up, setting up the winning rally for the Sox.)
August 9 - 2-1 win in Yankees Stadium. (Marcus Thames' bid for a game tying homer hits the top of the wall as Lester, Bard and Papelbon hold on for the win.)

August 10 - 7-5 win in Toronto. (The Sox blow a late lead but Mike Lowell puts them on top for good with an 8th inning homer.)
August 14 - 3-1 win in Texas. (Lester wiggles out of jams and a botched hit and run play kills a potential 9th inning Texas rally.)
August 18 - 7-5 win against the Angels. (The Sox fell behind 5-2, but came back with Beltre's homer, a wild pitch, a hit by pitch and some great Nava defense)
August 21 - 5-4 win against Toronto. (Jed Lowrie hits a walk off 11th inning homer, masking a come back rally by the Jays against Dice-K.)
August 23 - 6-3 win against Seattle. (Scuatro drives in the go ahead runs and Lackey throws a gritty 8 innings)
August 25 - 5-3 win against Seattle. (Beckett throws a shutout into the 7th and the Sox rally for 4 in the 6th in the rain and fog, including a strange RBI single off the pitcher by Beltre.)

TEETH GRINDER GAMES - 37

April 6 - 6-4 loss against the Yankees. (Scutaro's error leads to the winning run.)
April 7 - 3-1 loss against the Yankees. (Sox leave the winning run on in the 9th only to lose on Granderson's 10th inning homer)
April 9 - 4-3 loss in Kansas City. (Bard coughs up the lead, denying Wakefield a win.)
April 17 - 3-1 loss to Tampa Bay. (The Sox can't score with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 11th... lost it in the 12th.)
April 17 - 6-5 loss to Tampa Bay. (The Red Sox comeback falls a run short, leaving two on in the 8th)
April 25 - 7-6 loss to Baltimore. (The Sox blow a 4-1 lead, leave the winning run on second in the 9th, let up 3 in the 10th and could only score 2 in the bottom of the 10th)
April 30 - 5-4 loss in Baltimore. (Tejada ties the game with a 2 out 8th inning homer and wins it with a bloop in the 10th)
May 1 - 12-9 loss in Baltimore. (Dice-K and Wakes get pounded, wasting 2 homers from Ortiz and an early 4-1 lead.)
May 2 - 3-2 loss in Baltimore. (Varitek is thrown at home trying to score with 2 outs in the 8th. Sox get swept in the 10th.
May 12 - 3-2 loss against the Blue Jays. (The Sox rally in the 9th comes up a run short and Kevin Gregg gets an ugly save.)
May 15 - 7-6 loss in Detroit. (The Sox blow a 6-1 lead and lose it on a 2 out bases loaded walk in the 12th.)
May 17 - 11-9 loss in New York. (The Sox come all the way back from a 5-0 first inning hole to take a 9-7 lead in the 9th... but Papelbon lets up a 2 run game tying shot to A-Rod and a 2 run walk off shot to Marcus Thames.)
May 21 - 5-1 loss in Philadelphia. (Big Papi's bid for a game tying 9th inning grand slam is caught at the warning track.)
May 27 - 4-3 loss to Kansas City. (Dice-K walks the go ahead run in and lets another score on a wild pitch as the Royals no name bullpen shut down the Hot Sox.)
May 28 - 12-5 loss to Kansas City. (Sox blow a 3-0 first inning lead to be blown out in Fenway.)
June 3 - 9-8 loss to Oakland. (Sox lose a slugfest where two Boston runners are thrown out at home.)

June 6 - 4-3 loss in Baltimore. (Sox rally to tie the game in the 9th only to lose it on a small ball rally in the 11th.)
June 10 - 8-7 loss in Cleveland. (Sox blow an early 5-0 lead and then after rallying in the 9th to take the lead coughed it up with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th)
June 13 - 5-3 loss to Philadelphia. (Sox 9th inning rally comes up short)
June 22 - 2-1 loss in Colorado. (The Sox waste a solid Lester start and twice leave the bases loaded.)
June 23 - 8-6 loss in Colorado. (The Sox batter Ubaldo Jimenez around but Papelbon lets up 2 homers in the 9th to lose it.)
June 25 - 5-4 loss in San Francisco. (The Sox strand 11 runners in the last 4 innings wasting a solid Wakefield performance.)
July 5 - 6-5 loss in Tampa Bay. (Sox spoil a 5-1 lead and 2 homers by Eric Patterson when Dice-K and the bullpen couldn't hold down the Rays.)
July 6 - 3-2 loss in Tampa Bay. (Sox bats go dead and Kevin Youkilis goes down to injury.)
July 7 - 6-4 loss in Tampa Bay. (Matt Garza comes out of the pen, shuts down a late rally as the Rays sweep the Sox.)
July 10 - 9-5 loss in Toronto. (The Sox give Lackey an early 5-3 lead that he couldn't hold.)
July 18 - 4-2 loss to the Rangers. (Lester loses a rare game at home that included a Rangers steal of home.) July 20 - 5-4 loss in Oakland. (The Sox go up 4-0 after 2 but don't score again and lose it in the 10th)
July 21 - 6-4 loss in Oakland. (Buchholz can't hold on to an early lead as the Sox lose the series.)
July 24 - 5-1 loss in Seattle. (Lester's perfect game is foiled and the Red Sox bats die.)
July 25 - 4-2 loss in Seattle. (Okajima misplays a sacrifice bunt and the Mariners rally in the 8th to win.)
July 30 - 6-5 loss to Detroit. (Papi's grand slam makes it a 1 run game in the 9th but Cameron strikes out looking with the winning runs on base.)
August 2 - 6-5 loss to Cleveland. (Beltre drives in 5 runs by himself but the Red Sox leave the tying run on base with Big Papi on deck.)
August 12 - 6-5 loss in Toronto. (The Jays score 4 in the 9th inning to avoid the sweep.)
August 13 - 10-9 loss in Texas. (Beckett can't hold an early 8-1 lead as the Sox lose in 11.)
August 15 - 7-3 loss in Texas. (Young's homer breaks open a tight game.)
August 25 - 4-2 loss to Seattle. (The Sox knock out King Felix but can't score on the bullpen.)

+7!

A day off tomorrow... then Lester faces Price.
Dare we dream sweep?

We have no choice if we want to play in October.

New Cy Young Contenders in the A.L.

After Saturday, it didn't seem like David Price, Jon Lester nor Cliff Lee were really that interested in winning the American League Cy Young Award.

Well if the front runners don't wan to pull away from the pack... then the actual winner could emerge from a much bigger pool.

Trevor Cahill has the lowest batting average against, is neck and neck with Cliff Lee for best WHIP and is third in ERA. His win total of 12 is impressive when you consider he missed April. Since July 28th he is 4-1 with a 0.90 ERA and an 0.85 WHIP averaging 8 innings a start.

Jered Weaver may have had a rough inning tonight but he is still leading the league in strikeouts and his WAR for pitchers is second in the league. (I typed that as if I knew what it meant.)

Justin Verlander won his 14th game today, which means he is a cinch to win 17 or more games for the 4th time in 5 seasons. But he is winning in solid 7 or 8 inning performances and creeping up the strikeout leader board. A dominating September could put him higher up the list.

C.C. Sabathia (sorry, I am still including the punctuation) looks like he will FINALLY be a 20 game winner this season after 19 win seasons in 2007 and 2009. He had won his last 4 starts and done so convincingly. He's gone deep into games and given the bullpen an easy night when he takes the hill... a requirement for a Yankee team with so many question marks in the pitching staff. Sabathia might be keeping them in first on his own.

Clay Buchholz has won his last 5 decisions over 6 starts and done so with ace like numbers. A 1.03 ERA. 2.5 strikeouts for each walk and averaging 6 2/3 innings a start. (He only went 6 today in a rain soaked blowout. Throw in his leading the league in ERA and he may have surpassed Jon Lester as the team's primary Cy Young hopeful.


Now Lester, Price or Lee could have a dominating September and make a mockery of all of this. Or they can come back to the pack and see an AL Cy Young race that is every bit as close as the NL... if not as sexy with dominating candidates but ripe for healthy debate.

Man, I hope Carl Pavano DOES enter this equation.

EVERYONE wants the NL Cy Young, but NOBODY wants the AL Cy Young

While the National League Cy Young race has been fascinating all year by the number of legit candidates (Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Hudson and with a great September Johan Santana could all win it), the AL race has been kind of lackluster...

It's been a rough few day for the AL Front Runners.
Last night Jon Lester got bombarded.

Tonight David Price was subpar in his game against Oakland.

And don't look now, but the unstoppable Cliff Lee has been ordinary of late in Texas.
He is 2-4 as a Ranger and with tonight's 8 runs in 5 2/3 innings loss, his Texas ERA is up to 4.18. Hardly the numbers of a difference making ace!

The other day I offered up King Felix Hernandez as a potential Cy Young Candidate.
If the front runners keep pitching like this, he won't need my support.

Clay Buchholz and CC Sabathia might emerge as the front runners before long.

The greatest for me would be to see Carl Pavano come all the way back and win it. Then the Yankees would HAVE to make an offer to him.

Why not?
Who else is running away with it?

Should Felix Hernandez win the Cy Young even with a losing record?

King Felix Hernandez won against the Yankees last night in dominating fashion.

He threw 8 innings of shutout ball, striking out 11.
He is second in the league with a 2.51 ERA. He had thrown more innings than anyone in the American League.

He has one of the lowest WHIPs, is second in strikeouts, and according to Baseball Reference is among the league leaders in a bunch of categories I don't understand.

First in Adjusted Pitching Runs and Adjusted Pitching Wins.
Second in Base Outs Runs Saved and Base Out Wins Saved.

I don't know what the hell those mean, but they sound impressive.

One thing stuck out at me looking at his line score:
His record in 9-10.

This brilliant season and he is still sporting a losing record. I know it isn't his FAULT. He plays for a lousy Mariners team that is on pace to go 65-97. Frankly going double digit wins for a team like that is impressive.

I think he should be a Cy Young front runner. Is he the hands down winner?
No... Cliff Lee, who LEADS a lot of those categories I didn't understand and a few others that I do, needs some consideration. (Good for him for getting out of his Mariners exile.)

David Price has had a great year. So Has C.C. Sabathia and Clay Buchholz.
Jon Lester looked lke a great candidate before the Blue Jays thumped him last night.

But King Felix should be mentioned as certainly a top 3 candidate.
And only his record might keep him from consideration.

It is similar to when Nolan Ryan led the National League in ERA and strikeouts as well as a bunch of those categories I mentioned before... but played on an Astros team with a woeful lineup.

He finished 8-16 and a distant 5th in the Cy Young voting. Steve Bedrosian won the Cy Young... but Ryan should have won it.

Look beyond the wins and losses for King Felix, Cy Young voters. Maybe learn a few new stat templates.

Even if you don't understand them, they should be impressive.

Taking stock of the first 1/2 of the season

Back on May 31st, I took a look at the approximate 1/3 point of the season... took a look at who the playoff teams were and the front runners for the post season awards and a few other observations.

It seems like the 1/3 point of the season is absurdly early to evaluate how teams will pan out... but looking over what I wrote, a lot of the same names are the same.

It is interesting that Edwin Jackson was in the running for Biggest Bust in the NL... and when the year is over he very well might be a bust. But he added a no hitter to his resume.

So let's look at where we stand as we are about to embark in the second half of the 2010 season and compare them to the results at the 1/3 mark.

If the playoffs started today...

AL East Champion New York Yankees
Would have home field advantage over
AL Central Champion White Sox

AL West Champion Texas Rangers
Would have home field advantage over
AL Wild Card Tampa Bay Rays

(The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers would be within 3 games of a playoff spot.)

NL East Champion Atlanta Braves
Would have home field advantage over the Winner of a
Wild Card Tie Breaker Between
Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers

NL West Champion San Diego Padres
Would have home field advantage over
NL Central Champion Cincinnati Reds

(At the 1/3 Mark, The Rays had home field over Oakland, the Twins had home field over the Yankees. The Cardinals had home field over the Braves while the Padres still had home field over the Reds)

AL MVP:
JOSH HAMILTON, Rangers
The batting and hits leader is also in the top 4 of OPS, slugging, RBI and home runs. He is a potential triple crown threat.

In the running:
MIGUEL CABRERA, Tigers. JUSTIN MORNEAU, Twins. ROBINSON CANO, Yankees. KEVIN YOUKILIS, Red Sox.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Miguel Cabrera as the MVP.)

NL MVP:
JOEY VOTTO, Reds
The top OPS and home run man in the league, he is also among the league leaders in RBI and is batting .314. Also has led the Reds to a surprising first place position. People know him now after his initial All Star snub.

In the running:
ALBERT PUJOLS, Cardinals. DAVID WRIGHT, Mets. ANDRE ETHIER, Dodgers. ADRIAN GONZALEZ, Padres. RAFAEL FURCAL, Dodgers.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Albert Pujols as the MVP.)

AL CY YOUNG:
DAVID PRICE, Rays
Leads the league in ERA and wins and has the Rays back on track for a trip to October.

In the running:
JON LESTER, Red Sox. CC SABATHIA, Yankees. CLIFF LEE, Mariners/Rangers. FELIX HERNANDEZ, Mariners.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Jon Lester as the Cy Young.)

NL CY YOUNG:

UBALDO JIMENEZ, Rockies

Sure his numbers are not as superhuman as they were a few months ago. But his 15-1 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .198 BAA (second in the league) are all eye popping, especially when you consider where his home park is.

In the running:

JOSH JOHNSON, Marlins. ADAM WAINWRIGHT, Cardinals. ROY HALLADAY, Phillies. TIM LINCECUM, Giants.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Ubaldo Jimenez as the Cy Young.)

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
BRENNAN BOESCH, Tigers
Has helped the Tigers to be in or around first place with a .342 average, 12 homers and an OPS of .990.

In the running:

NEFTALI FELIZ, Rangers. AUSTIN JACKSON, Tigers. MITCH TALBOT, Indians. JOHN JASO, Blue Jays.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Mitch Talbot as the AL Rookie of the Year.)

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
JAMIE GARCIA, Cardinals
He has put up solid stats including an 8-4 record, a 2.10 ERA and will give the Cardinals about 200 innings when all is said and done.

In the running:
STEPHEN STRASBURG, Nationals. BUSTER POSEY, Giants. GABY SANCHEZ, Marlins. IKE DAVIS, Mets. JASON HEYWARD, Braves.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Jason Heyward as the Rookie of the Year.)

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
OZZIE GUILLEN, White Sox
The White Sox were 8 games under .500 and heading towards a lost season. Guillen stayed focused and next thing you know, the White Sox are in first at the All Star Break and has a pitching staff that can absorb the loss of Jake Peavy.

In the running:
RON WASHINGTON, Rangers. TERRY FRANCONA, Red Sox. JOE MADDON, Rays. JIM LEYLAND, Tigers. MIKE SCIOSCIA, Angels.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Joe Maddon as the Manager of the Year.)

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
DUSTY BAKER, Reds
The Reds were supposed to be also rans who were going to fade in June. Instead they are in first place at the All Star Break and just need to outpace St. Louis in a two team race.

In the running:
BOBBY COX, Braves. JIM TRACY, Rockies. BUD BLACK, Padres.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Dusty Baker as the Manager of the Year.)

AL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

VLADIMIR GUERRERO, Rangers
Think the Angels could use his bat right around now? He's batting .319 with 20 homers and 75 RBI for you old school baseball followers. He's posting a .919 OPS for you new school kids. And is forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Josh Hamilton in Arlington.

In the running:
VERNON WELLS, Blue Jays. ALEX RIOS, White Sox. TY WIGGINTON, Orioles.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Vernon Wells as the Comeback Player of the Year.)

NL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
TIM HUDSON, Braves
He spent most of 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery and having people wonder if the one time ace of the A's was done. Instead he became an All Star with a 9-4 record at the break, a 2.30 ERA and a 61/43 strikeout to walk ratio.

In the running:
SCOTT ROLEN, Reds. LIVAN HERNANDEZ, Nationals. CARLOS SILVA, Cubs. BARRY ZITO, Giants.

BIGGEST BUST IN THE AL:
MILTON BRADLEY, Mariners
When the Mariners brought in Cliff Lee to be a 1-2 punch for the pennant with King Felix, someone thought that Bradley would somehow be the center piece to the offense. He's been nothing short of a PR disaster, had to leave the team and his OPS is 1/3 lower than it was in 2008, his lone full season of note.

In the running:
JOSH BECKETT, Red Sox. JOBA CHAMBERLAIN, Yankees. CHONE FIGGINS, Mariners.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Josh Beckett as the biggest bust in the AL)

BIGGEST BUST IN THE NL
CARLOS ZAMBRANO, Cubs
The nominal ace of the Cubs had to get his head straight as a middle reliever. Then his dugout tirade made him suspended from the club. The Cubs would deal him for a flat can of Diet 7 Up.

In the running:
AKI IWAMURA, Pirates. ARAMIS RAMIREZ, Cubs. MARK DeROSA, Giants.


So let's start the second half up...
And I'll check in around Labor Day. Hopefully there will be more Red Sox in these categories (except Biggest Bust.)

Price wins... it's your move Lester

I've written a lot about the NL Cy Young race this year... but not too much about the American League

It hasn't been as sexy a race with the Jimenez's, Halladays, Wainwrights, Lincecums et al dominating.

Right now I'd say two of the front runners for the AL are David Price, who pitched Tampa to an easy win over Toronto last night and leads the AL in wins and ERA, and Jon Lester, the AL Pitcher of the Month in May (based on his 5-0 record in May with a 1.84 ERA) and has the lowest batting average against in the bigs. And since starting the season 0-2 with a 8.44 ERA over his first three starts he is 7-0 with 1.28 ERA.

He goes tonight.

Yeah I know Phil Hughes, Jeff Niemann, Andy Pettitte and Clay Buchholz are all candidates as well but Lester and Price can separate themselves from the pack.

Let's hope Lester gets no hitter #2.