Will by NL Central pick be once again a year early?

This September I pointed out that I am not very good at picking who will actually win the NL Central, but I AM good at figuring out that the consensus pick will probably fall short.

In 2009 everyone and their cow was picking the Cubs to win.
I picked the Reds. The Cardinals won (I picked the Cardinals for the Wild Card.)

In 2010 everyone and their moose was picking the Cardinals to win.
I picked the Brewers. The Reds won.

But with Zack Greinke going to the Brewers, I can't help but wonder if the Brewers and their solid rotation and terrific line up, should be considered to be the favorites in a very winnable NL Central.

And would my pick be a year premature?
Am I the baseball predicting equivalent to that show Early Edition?

There's only one way to test it:
I am going to pick the Pittsburgh Pirates to win the 2011 NL Central.
If the Brewers win in 2011 and the Pirates win in 2012, I will be FREAKED OUT!

The Giants perfectly illustrated my teeth grinder theory today

I have said many times that it is better to be blown out than to lose a slug fest. An 11-10 loss is the worst because you can look up and say “Man, if only our pitching was MEDIOCRE today! We’d have won.”

I know some people think I am bonkers when I say I’d rather lose 11-0 than 11-10. But look at today’s Giants/Reds game and think of it from the point of view of a Giants fan (and I know I have a bunch of Giant fan readers here.)

When it was 10-1, Reds… didn’t you kind of shrug and say “Not our day?”

Madison put the Bum in Bumgarner and the bats were dead. You could say “Hey, at least they won the first 2 games in the series to win it.”

But when the Giants came storming back, didn’t you think “Oh man, this could be the biggest game of the year?”

Then when they took the lead, didn’t you have images of the National League Pennant dancing in your head?

Then that ground ball to Sandoval… you thought there were two outs and nobody on… you started getting cocky.

When the game went into extras (and seemed to go on for another 6 hours) didn’t you imagine a McCovey Cove walk off shot for each pitch thrown to the Giants?

Then Votto won it… again. And after all of that you had the same result if it ended 10-1. Except you didn’t spend hours of your life hoping for a moment of euphoria that never arrived.

See the difference?

It is subtle.

Albert Pujols doesn't have to look up to anyone

You can write it in ink... Albert Pujols is winning the 2010 National League MVP.

Oh right now it is close between Pujols and Joey Votto with about 30% of the season left. It also looked like Mechagodzilla was going to beat Godzilla with 30% left in THAT fight too.

At the 1/3 mark, I wrote that Pujols was the MVP until someone else proved otherwise.

Well, Joey Votto answered the bell and is having an outstanding season... and right now it would look like it would be a neck and neck vote.

Votto is #1 and Pujols #2 in on base percentage, slugging and, it would make sense, OPS.
Votto is second in hitting. Pujols fifth.
Pujols is second in home runs. Votto third.
Pujols is first in RBI. Votto third.
Votto is first in runs scored. Pujols fifth.
Pujols is first in total bases. Votto third.
Pujols is second in walks. Votto third.
Votto is first in runs created and offensive win percentage. Pujols second.

Votto is also first in situational wins added. Pujols second.

I have no clue what situational wins added means, but damn it sounds impressive.

Remember how this was supposedly a down year for Pujols?

With a race this tight, why am I writing Pujols' MVP in ink?

Have you SEEN how Pujols has been playing? He's batted .442 since July ended with 5 homers, 13 RBI, has an OPS of 1.327 and in 47 plate appearances has 1 strikeout.

And oh yeah the Cardinals leap frogged the Reds into first place during that stretch.

Yeah, I know... we aren't supposed to look at anything other than stats for MVP... but going on a tear as his team takes over the top spot SHOULD count for something!

It's safe to say that he is heating up and Votto has as much chance to stop his momentum as Tia Leoni and Maximillian Schell had to stop the tidal wave in Deep Impact.

It's Albert's award to lose and when the waves subside, he should have his 4th MVP and 3rd overall.

Man how great would it be to HIS agent!

Taking stock of the first 1/2 of the season

Back on May 31st, I took a look at the approximate 1/3 point of the season... took a look at who the playoff teams were and the front runners for the post season awards and a few other observations.

It seems like the 1/3 point of the season is absurdly early to evaluate how teams will pan out... but looking over what I wrote, a lot of the same names are the same.

It is interesting that Edwin Jackson was in the running for Biggest Bust in the NL... and when the year is over he very well might be a bust. But he added a no hitter to his resume.

So let's look at where we stand as we are about to embark in the second half of the 2010 season and compare them to the results at the 1/3 mark.

If the playoffs started today...

AL East Champion New York Yankees
Would have home field advantage over
AL Central Champion White Sox

AL West Champion Texas Rangers
Would have home field advantage over
AL Wild Card Tampa Bay Rays

(The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers would be within 3 games of a playoff spot.)

NL East Champion Atlanta Braves
Would have home field advantage over the Winner of a
Wild Card Tie Breaker Between
Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers

NL West Champion San Diego Padres
Would have home field advantage over
NL Central Champion Cincinnati Reds

(At the 1/3 Mark, The Rays had home field over Oakland, the Twins had home field over the Yankees. The Cardinals had home field over the Braves while the Padres still had home field over the Reds)

AL MVP:
JOSH HAMILTON, Rangers
The batting and hits leader is also in the top 4 of OPS, slugging, RBI and home runs. He is a potential triple crown threat.

In the running:
MIGUEL CABRERA, Tigers. JUSTIN MORNEAU, Twins. ROBINSON CANO, Yankees. KEVIN YOUKILIS, Red Sox.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Miguel Cabrera as the MVP.)

NL MVP:
JOEY VOTTO, Reds
The top OPS and home run man in the league, he is also among the league leaders in RBI and is batting .314. Also has led the Reds to a surprising first place position. People know him now after his initial All Star snub.

In the running:
ALBERT PUJOLS, Cardinals. DAVID WRIGHT, Mets. ANDRE ETHIER, Dodgers. ADRIAN GONZALEZ, Padres. RAFAEL FURCAL, Dodgers.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Albert Pujols as the MVP.)

AL CY YOUNG:
DAVID PRICE, Rays
Leads the league in ERA and wins and has the Rays back on track for a trip to October.

In the running:
JON LESTER, Red Sox. CC SABATHIA, Yankees. CLIFF LEE, Mariners/Rangers. FELIX HERNANDEZ, Mariners.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Jon Lester as the Cy Young.)

NL CY YOUNG:

UBALDO JIMENEZ, Rockies

Sure his numbers are not as superhuman as they were a few months ago. But his 15-1 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .198 BAA (second in the league) are all eye popping, especially when you consider where his home park is.

In the running:

JOSH JOHNSON, Marlins. ADAM WAINWRIGHT, Cardinals. ROY HALLADAY, Phillies. TIM LINCECUM, Giants.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Ubaldo Jimenez as the Cy Young.)

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
BRENNAN BOESCH, Tigers
Has helped the Tigers to be in or around first place with a .342 average, 12 homers and an OPS of .990.

In the running:

NEFTALI FELIZ, Rangers. AUSTIN JACKSON, Tigers. MITCH TALBOT, Indians. JOHN JASO, Blue Jays.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Mitch Talbot as the AL Rookie of the Year.)

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
JAMIE GARCIA, Cardinals
He has put up solid stats including an 8-4 record, a 2.10 ERA and will give the Cardinals about 200 innings when all is said and done.

In the running:
STEPHEN STRASBURG, Nationals. BUSTER POSEY, Giants. GABY SANCHEZ, Marlins. IKE DAVIS, Mets. JASON HEYWARD, Braves.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Jason Heyward as the Rookie of the Year.)

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
OZZIE GUILLEN, White Sox
The White Sox were 8 games under .500 and heading towards a lost season. Guillen stayed focused and next thing you know, the White Sox are in first at the All Star Break and has a pitching staff that can absorb the loss of Jake Peavy.

In the running:
RON WASHINGTON, Rangers. TERRY FRANCONA, Red Sox. JOE MADDON, Rays. JIM LEYLAND, Tigers. MIKE SCIOSCIA, Angels.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Joe Maddon as the Manager of the Year.)

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
DUSTY BAKER, Reds
The Reds were supposed to be also rans who were going to fade in June. Instead they are in first place at the All Star Break and just need to outpace St. Louis in a two team race.

In the running:
BOBBY COX, Braves. JIM TRACY, Rockies. BUD BLACK, Padres.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Dusty Baker as the Manager of the Year.)

AL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

VLADIMIR GUERRERO, Rangers
Think the Angels could use his bat right around now? He's batting .319 with 20 homers and 75 RBI for you old school baseball followers. He's posting a .919 OPS for you new school kids. And is forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Josh Hamilton in Arlington.

In the running:
VERNON WELLS, Blue Jays. ALEX RIOS, White Sox. TY WIGGINTON, Orioles.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Vernon Wells as the Comeback Player of the Year.)

NL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
TIM HUDSON, Braves
He spent most of 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery and having people wonder if the one time ace of the A's was done. Instead he became an All Star with a 9-4 record at the break, a 2.30 ERA and a 61/43 strikeout to walk ratio.

In the running:
SCOTT ROLEN, Reds. LIVAN HERNANDEZ, Nationals. CARLOS SILVA, Cubs. BARRY ZITO, Giants.

BIGGEST BUST IN THE AL:
MILTON BRADLEY, Mariners
When the Mariners brought in Cliff Lee to be a 1-2 punch for the pennant with King Felix, someone thought that Bradley would somehow be the center piece to the offense. He's been nothing short of a PR disaster, had to leave the team and his OPS is 1/3 lower than it was in 2008, his lone full season of note.

In the running:
JOSH BECKETT, Red Sox. JOBA CHAMBERLAIN, Yankees. CHONE FIGGINS, Mariners.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Josh Beckett as the biggest bust in the AL)

BIGGEST BUST IN THE NL
CARLOS ZAMBRANO, Cubs
The nominal ace of the Cubs had to get his head straight as a middle reliever. Then his dugout tirade made him suspended from the club. The Cubs would deal him for a flat can of Diet 7 Up.

In the running:
AKI IWAMURA, Pirates. ARAMIS RAMIREZ, Cubs. MARK DeROSA, Giants.


So let's start the second half up...
And I'll check in around Labor Day. Hopefully there will be more Red Sox in these categories (except Biggest Bust.)

How many All Star selections do I agree with?

The All Star selections this year have been some of the strangest and bringing around the most controversy of any year I can remember.

With each roster at 35 players, there really shouldn't be any MAJOR controversy. The top players should be in there and the arguments should be over fringe players.

Alas, this year there are some whoppers of omissions, including Joey Votto, who I had as the starting DH for the National League, and Paul Konerko and Kevin Youkilis, who are both having amazing years.

Now all three are on the "pick the final player" poll (or whatever it is called) but they should have to sing for their supper. They should be in, no questions asked.

Some players that got in that I didn't pick I have no problem with... Matt Thornton, Phil Hughes, Jose Valverde... all having nice years.

And I didn't include David Ortiz nor Victor Martinez on MY list, so I guess you can't accuse me of excessive Red Sox bias!

But I'm not saying anything that isn't taking up hours of talk radio time right now.
I suppose that's why I listed my All Star Roster ahead of the release of the real rosters.

That way I can show it wasn't second guessing. (Although I forgot that Troy Tulowitzki was on the Disabled List. Whoops.)

So let's see which All Stars I agreed with and which ones I didn't.

American League All Stars that I picked as well

(The players voted in by fans)

ROBINSON CANO, Yankees

CARL CRAWFORD, Rays

VLADIMIR GUERRERO, Rangers

JOSH HAMILTON, Rangers

DEREK JETER, Yankees

EVAN LONGORIA, Rays

JOE MAUER, Twins

JUSTIN MORNEAU, Twins

ICHIRO SUZUKI, Mariners

(Pitchers and Reserves That I Also Picked)

ELVIS ANDRUS, Rangers

ADRIAN BELTRE, Red Sox

CLAY BUCHHOLZ, Red Sox

JOHN BUCK, Blue Jays

MIGUEL CABRERA, Tigers

TREVOR CAHILL, A's

TORII HUNTER, Angels

IAN KINSLER, Rangers

CLIFF LEE, Mariners

JON LESTER, Red Sox
ANDY PETTITTE, Yankees

DAVID PRICE, Rays

MARIANO RIVERA, Yankees

C. C. SABATHIA, Yankees

JOAKIM SORIA, Royals

VERNON WELLS, Blue Jays

American League Players I chose
but didn't make the All Star Roster

ANDREW BAILEY, A's

SHIN SOO CHOO, Indians

FELIX HERNANDEZ, Mariners

PAUL KONERKO, White Sox

COLBY LEWIS, Rangers

NICK MARKAKIS, Orioles

MIKE NAPOLI, Angels

JARED WEAVER, Angels

KEVIN YOUKILIS, Red Sox

American League Players that made
the All Star Roster that I DIDN'T pick

JOSE BAUTISTA, Blue Jays

FAUSTO CARMONA, Indians

NEFTALI FELIZ, Rangers

PHIL HUGHES, Yankees

VICTOR MARTINEZ, Red Sox

DAVID ORTIZ, Red Sox

ALEX RODRIGUEZ, Yankees

MATT THORNTON, White Sox

JOSE VALVERDE, Tigers

TY WIGGINTON, Orioles

National League All Stars that I picked as well

(The players voted in by fans)

RYAN BRAUN, Brewers
ANDRE ETHIER, Dodgers
YADIER MOLINA, Cardinals
ALBERT PUJOLS, Cardinals
HANLEY RAMIREZ, Marlins
DAVID WRIGHT, Mets

(Pitchers and Reserves That I Also Picked)

MARLON BYRD, Cubs
ADRIAN GONZALEZ, Padres
ROY HALLADAY, Phillies
COREY HART, Brewers
RYAN HOWARD, Phillies
TIM HUDSON, Braves

UBALDO JIMENEZ, Rockies
JOSH JOHNSON, Marlins
TIM LINCECUM, Giants
BRIAN McCANN, Braves
BRANDON PHILLIPS, Reds
SCOTT ROLEN, Reds
TROY TULOWITZKI, Rockies
ADAM WAINWRIGHT, Cardinals

National League Players I chose
but didn't make the All Star Roster

HEATH BELL, Padres
R. A. DICKEY, Mets
JAIME GARCIA, Cardinals
DAN HAREN, Diamondbacks
MAT LATOS, Padres
MIGUEL OLIVO, Rockies
ROY OSWALT, Astros
COLBY RASMUS, Cardinals
STEPHEN STRASBURG, Nationals
JOEY VOTTO, Reds
BILLY WAGNER, Braves
JAYSON WERTH, Phillies

National League Players that made
the All Star Roster that I DIDN'T pick

MICHAEL BOURN, Astros
JONATHAN BROXTON, Dodgers
MATT CAPPS, Nationals
CHRIS CARPENTER, Cardinals
YOVANI GALLARDO, Brewers
MATT HOLLIDAY, Cardinals
OMAR INFANTE, Braves
EVAN MEEK, Pirates
JOSE REYES, Mets
ARTHUR RHODES, Reds
BRIAN WILSON, Giants
CHRIS YOUNG, Diamondbacks


I am voting for Joey Votto and Kevin Youkilis for the final roster spot... although with Youk going down we might have the sore sight of All Star Nick Swisher.

TO BE CONTINUED

The Reds game isn't on TV? Is Cincinnati now Oakland?

The Cincinnati Reds are in first place here in late May. This afternoon they are playing the Atlanta Braves and young phenom Mike Leake is on the mound.

The Reds are blowing the Braves out of the building as of this writing and it looks like the Reds will continue their hot play and stay in first.

And guess what?
According to my MLB.TV links, it isn't on TV in Cincinnati!

The hell?

I got on Oakland for not broadcasting all of their games... but no offense to Oakland, but in terms of baseball tradition, you aren't Cincinnati.

The A's can stay in Oakland or move to Fremont or San Jose and there will still be order in the baseball world.

Removing the Reds from Cincinnati would mean taking a team away from the birthplace of professional baseball.

Seriously? You can't show every Reds game on TV? Especially when they are on a winning streak and in first place?

Mike Leake is pitching a great game and has a double to boot.

The offense is firing on all pistons as they chased Tommy Hansen after two innings.

Nix homered and hit a 2 run double.

Joey Votto hit a grandslam.

But it isn't aired in the Queen City!

What in the name of Bid McPhee is going on here?

CINCINNATI FANS… THE REDS' MAGIC NUMBER IS 125

That’s right… we are in Mid May and the Reds have passed the Cardinals. The Cincinnati Reds are in first! I don’t want people to be blasé about this along the banks of the Ohio River.

One of the great baseball cities of all time has a team in first place… and they got there with some complete games, some clutch hitting and some home grown players with kick ass names like Joey Botto, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake.

I picked the Reds to win the pennant last year and while I was WAY off, I didn’t pick that team out of a hat. I felt their young talent could blossom into an exciting young team that Reds fans can call their own.

That could be what is happening now.

I am not expecting every game at Great American Ballpark to be standing room only… but you fans aren’t Rays fans, a fan base that is being treated to one of the most exciting young teams the game has seen in years who could possibly outplay the Yankees and Red Sox for the second time in three years… and can’t fill half their stadium.

The Rays play in a crappy ballpark that is hard to get to and the fan base has no tradition in baseball.

The Reds are just the opposite. They have a great park that is easy to get to and one of the richest traditions in all of baseball. Don’t believe me? Read up!

Time to put some fannys in the seats. School will be out soon and the kids in Ohio and Northern Kentucky are going to be treated to a team that is in contention. By midseason they might even be inserting Aroldis Chapman into their rotation to give them an even bigger boost.

You hear how New York, Boston and St. Louis fans are the most passionate about baseball. Time to punch your entry into the discussion Reds fans.

I know the 2000s were rough for the Reds as they were part of the “less than magnificent seven” teams that went from 2000 to 2009 without a playoff appearance.

I know young fans might be apathetic.

No excuse now… you’ve got a contender on your hands. And any combination of Reds wins and Cardinals losses that equal 125 will send the Reds back to the playoffs.

It’s never too early to count down!